UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Fenerbahçe at 67%. The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.
Match analysis
Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz met on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Chobani Stadium, Istanbul. Before kick-off, our model gave Fenerbahçe a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sturm Graz 13%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 13 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Sturm Graz have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 9. Fenerbahçe therefore arrive in far better shape than Sturm Graz. On average Fenerbahçe score 2.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Sturm Graz score 2.80 and concede 1.80.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Sturm Graz and 1 draw. In double chance terms, "Fenerbahçe or draw" stands at 87%, "Sturm Graz or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 80%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fenerbahçe – Sturm Graz. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz | 12.1% |
| Fenerbahçe 1-0 Sturm Graz | 11.7% |
| Fenerbahçe 2-1 Sturm Graz | 9.7% |
| Fenerbahçe 1-1 Sturm Graz | 9.3% |
| Fenerbahçe 3-0 Sturm Graz | 8.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.08 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.80 for Sturm Graz, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 55% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Sturm Graz in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe expected goals | 2.08 |
| Sturm Graz expected goals | 0.80 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 45% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Fenerbahçe
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Lask Linz · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Admira Wacker · Club Friendlies | 5-0 | W |
Sturm Graz
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Kalsdorf · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | FK Košice · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 30, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy · Club Friendlies | 2-6 | L |
Head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Sturm Graz and 1 draw.
Out and doubtful
Fenerbahçe
No absences reported.
Sturm Graz
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Ararat-Armenia 2-1 CeljeAug 4, 2026
- Mjallby AIF 1-2 Slovan BratislavaAug 4, 2026
- Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 FK Crvena ZvezdaAug 4, 2026
- Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat AlmatyAug 4, 2026
- Sparta Praha 2-1 LyonAug 4, 2026
- Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 NEC NijmegenAug 4, 2026
- Union St. Gilloise 3-3 Bodo/GlimtAug 4, 2026
- Dinamo Zagreb 5-0 Kauno ŽalgirisAug 4, 2026
- Aarhus 2-1 Sabah FAAug 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Fenerbahçe a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sturm Graz 13%. Fenerbahçe are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
2-0 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%) and 3-0 (8.4%).
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
The probability that both Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz score is 48%. Fenerbahçe have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sturm Graz 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
The model expects 2.88 goals (2.08 for Fenerbahçe, 0.80 for Sturm Graz). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz played?
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Chobani Stadium, Istanbul.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz in?
Fenerbahçe: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 2 conceded). Sturm Graz: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Sturm Graz and 1 draw.
What was the Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Fenerbahçe at 67%. The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.
How is the Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.08 for Fenerbahçe, 0.80 for Sturm Graz) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fenerbahçe predictions
- All Sturm Graz predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology