UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: the AS Roma vs Real Madrid match is scheduled on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites: a 69% chance of winning, against 14% for the draw and 17% for AS Roma. On the correct score, 1-3 comes out on top (6.4%), followed by 2-3 (5.8%) and 1-4 (5.6%).
AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average AS Roma score 2.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, AS Roma sit 17th with 1 points from 1 games, Real Madrid 14th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, AS Roma have averaged 2.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.58 for Real Madrid.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AS Roma, 5 for Real Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended AS Roma 0-2 Real Madrid (Nov 27, 2018). AS Roma out or doubtful: M. Bah, B. Cristante (doubtful), D. Malen (doubtful) and Wesley Franca (doubtful). Real Madrid: R. Asencio, D. Huijsen (suspended), F. Mendy, Rodrygo, Eder Militao (doubtful) and F. Valverde (doubtful). In double chance terms, "AS Roma or draw" stands at 31%, "Real Madrid or draw" at 83% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Real Madrid are tipped by our AI model in this AS Roma v Real Madrid (69%). On recent form, AS Roma have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as AS Roma – Real Madrid. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (6.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 28% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma 1-3 Real Madrid | 6.4% |
| AS Roma 2-3 Real Madrid | 5.8% |
| AS Roma 1-4 Real Madrid | 5.6% |
| AS Roma 1-2 Real Madrid | 5.5% |
| AS Roma 2-4 Real Madrid | 5.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.82 expected goals for AS Roma and 3.49 for Real Madrid, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 90% and "both teams to score" at 81%. Goals look likely in this one. AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 3% of scenarios, Real Madrid in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| AS Roma expected goals | 1.82 |
| Real Madrid expected goals | 3.49 |
| Both teams to score | 81% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 78% |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 3% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
AS Roma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 4-0 | W |
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 17 | 1 | 1 |
| Real Madrid | 14 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2018 | AS Roma 0-2 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 19, 2018 | Real Madrid 3-0 AS Roma | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2018 | Real Madrid 2-1 AS Roma | International Champions Cup |
| Mar 8, 2016 | Real Madrid 2-0 AS Roma | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 17, 2016 | AS Roma 0-2 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
AS Roma
- M. Bah (out)
- B. Cristante (doubtful)
- D. Malen (doubtful)
- Wesley Franca (doubtful)
Real Madrid
- R. Asencio (out)
- D. Huijsen (suspended)
- F. Mendy (out)
- Rodrygo (out)
- Eder Militao (doubtful)
- F. Valverde (doubtful)
Most regular starters
AS Roma
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Cristante4/5
- D. Malen4/5
- G. Mancini4/5
- M. Svilar4/5
- P. Dybala4/5
- E. Lulli3/5
- M. Hermoso3/5
- E. Ndicka2/5
- M. Kone2/5
- M. Soule2/5
- Wesley2/5
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Valverde5/5
- T. Courtois5/5
- D. Dumfries4/5
- D. Huijsen4/5
- I. Konate4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- Vinicius Junior4/5
- M. Cucurella3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- T. Alexander-Arnold2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction?
Our AI gives AS Roma a 17% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Real Madrid 69%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
1-3 (6.4%), followed by 2-3 (5.8%), 1-4 (5.6%), 1-2 (5.5%) and 2-4 (5.1%).
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
The probability that both AS Roma and Real Madrid score is 81%. AS Roma have a 3% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Madrid 16%.
How many goals should we expect in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
The model expects 5.31 goals (1.82 for AS Roma, 3.49 for Real Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 90%, over 3.5 goals 78%.
When and where is AS Roma vs Real Madrid played?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
What form are AS Roma and Real Madrid in?
AS Roma: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded). Real Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Real Madrid?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AS Roma, 5 for Real Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended AS Roma 0-2 Real Madrid (Nov 27, 2018).
How is the AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.82 for AS Roma, 3.49 for Real Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
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