UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Galatasaray vs Barcelona: 1-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Galatasaray 1-4 Barcelona. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Barcelona at 75%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.1%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.
Match analysis
Galatasaray and Barcelona met on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Rams Park, Istanbul. Before kick-off, our model gave Galatasaray a 11% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Barcelona 75%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.3%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Galatasaray have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 22 and conceding 6. Barcelona therefore arrive in far better shape than Galatasaray. On average Galatasaray score 1.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Barcelona score 4.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Galatasaray sit 30th with 0 points from 1 games, Barcelona 3rd with 3 points from 1. 27 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Galatasaray have averaged 1.74 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.25 for Barcelona.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Galatasaray, 1 for Barcelona and 1 draw. The most recent ended Galatasaray 1-2 Barcelona (Mar 17, 2022). Galatasaray out or doubtful: E. Aydin, K. Ayhan, A. Guner, K. Karatas, W. Singo, A. Unyay, A. Yilmaz and G. Guvenc. Barcelona: R. Bardghji, A. Christensen, Raphinha and F. de Jong. In double chance terms, "Galatasaray or draw" stands at 25%, "Barcelona or draw" at 89% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Barcelona are favourites for this Galatasaray v Barcelona, with a 75% win probability from our model. On recent form, Galatasaray have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Barcelona are in good shape (5 wins in 5). One to watch: Galatasaray will be without E. Aydin and K. Ayhan.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Galatasaray – Barcelona. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray 1-2 Barcelona | 8.3% |
| Galatasaray 1-3 Barcelona | 8.2% |
| Galatasaray 0-2 Barcelona | 7.6% |
| Galatasaray 0-3 Barcelona | 7.5% |
| Galatasaray 1-4 Barcelona | 6.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.10 expected goals for Galatasaray and 2.96 for Barcelona, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 77% and "both teams to score" at 63%. Goals look likely in this one. Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Barcelona in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray expected goals | 1.10 |
| Barcelona expected goals | 2.96 |
| Both teams to score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% |
| Galatasaray clean sheet | 5% |
| Barcelona clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Galatasaray
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Pendikspor · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Trabzonspor · Süper Lig | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Kocaelispor · Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sporting CP · UEFA Champions League | 1-3 | L |
Barcelona
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 7-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Feyenoord · UEFA Champions League | 5-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 30 | 0 | 1 |
| Barcelona | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | Galatasaray 1-2 Barcelona | UEFA Europa League |
| Mar 10, 2022 | Barcelona 0-0 Galatasaray | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Galatasaray
- E. Aydin (out)
- K. Ayhan (out)
- A. Guner (out)
- K. Karatas (out)
- W. Singo (out)
- A. Unyay (out)
- A. Yilmaz (out)
- G. Guvenc (out)
Barcelona
- R. Bardghji (out)
- A. Christensen (out)
- Raphinha (out)
- F. de Jong (out)
Most regular starters
Galatasaray
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gabriel Sara5/5
- D. Sanchez3/5
- L. Sane3/5
- L. Torreira3/5
- R. Sallai3/5
- U. Cakir3/5
- Y. Akgun3/5
- A. Bardakci2/5
- B. Yilmaz2/5
- D. Gul2/5
- E. Elmali2/5
Barcelona
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Lamine Yamal5/5
- Rodri5/5
- Pedri4/5
- Raphinha4/5
- A. Christensen3/5
- A. Gordon3/5
- E. Garcia3/5
- J. Cancelo3/5
- J. Garcia3/5
- P. Cubarsi3/5
- D. Olmo2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sabah FA 2-0 Slavia PrahaOct 13, 2026
- Lens 0-2 Sporting CPOct 13, 2026
- Inter 3-4 Club Brugge KVOct 13, 2026
- Arsenal 3-0 LilleOct 13, 2026
- RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV EindhovenOct 13, 2026
- Villarreal 3-1 NapoliOct 13, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester UnitedOct 13, 2026
- Viking 3-3 Bayern MünchenOct 13, 2026
- Feyenoord 3-2 ComoOct 14, 2026
- Lask Linz 3-6 LiverpoolOct 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Galatasaray vs Barcelona prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Galatasaray a 11% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Barcelona 75%. Barcelona are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Galatasaray vs Barcelona?
1-2 (8.3%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.6%), 0-3 (7.5%) and 1-4 (6.1%).
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Barcelona?
The probability that both Galatasaray and Barcelona score is 63%. Galatasaray have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Barcelona 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Galatasaray vs Barcelona?
The model expects 4.06 goals (1.10 for Galatasaray, 2.96 for Barcelona). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.
When and where is Galatasaray vs Barcelona played?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Rams Park, Istanbul.
What form are Galatasaray and Barcelona in?
Galatasaray: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 11 conceded). Barcelona: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (22 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Barcelona?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Galatasaray, 1 for Barcelona and 1 draw. The most recent ended Galatasaray 1-2 Barcelona (Mar 17, 2022).
What was the Galatasaray vs Barcelona result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Galatasaray 1-4 Barcelona. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Barcelona at 75%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.1%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.
How is the Galatasaray vs Barcelona prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.10 for Galatasaray, 2.96 for Barcelona) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Galatasaray predictions
- All Barcelona predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology