UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Villarreal vs Napoli prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Villarreal vs Napoli kicks off on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal. Our model makes Villarreal clear favourites: a 61% chance of winning, against 19% for the draw and 20% for Napoli. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (8.9%), followed by 3-1 (7.3%) and 1-1 (7.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Napoli have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Villarreal score 2.20 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Napoli score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Villarreal sit 21st with 0 points from 1 games, Napoli 27th with 0 points from 1. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Villarreal have averaged 2.16 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.60 for Napoli.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Napoli and 1 draw. The most recent ended Napoli 2-3 Villarreal (Dec 17, 2022). Villarreal out or doubtful: S. Comesana. Napoli: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno, Giovane, L. Marianucci, S. McTominay, A. Meret and L. Spinazzola. In double chance terms, "Villarreal or draw" stands at 80%, "Napoli or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Villarreal are favourites for this Villarreal v Napoli, with a 61% win probability from our model. On recent form, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Napoli have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. One to watch: Napoli will be without Alisson Santos and A. Buongiorno.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Villarreal – Napoli. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Villarreal 2-1 Napoli | 8.9% |
| Villarreal 3-1 Napoli | 7.3% |
| Villarreal 1-1 Napoli | 7.2% |
| Villarreal 2-0 Napoli | 6.4% |
| Villarreal 2-2 Napoli | 6.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.47 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.40 for Napoli, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 74% and "both teams to score" at 69%. Goals look likely in this one. Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Napoli in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Villarreal expected goals | 2.47 |
| Napoli expected goals | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 25% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| Napoli | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2022 | Napoli 2-3 Villarreal | Club Friendlies |
| Feb 25, 2016 | Napoli 1-1 Villarreal | UEFA Europa League |
| Feb 18, 2016 | Villarreal 1-0 Napoli | UEFA Europa League |
| Dec 7, 2011 | Villarreal 0-2 Napoli | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 27, 2011 | Napoli 2-0 Villarreal | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Villarreal
- S. Comesana (out)
Napoli
- Alisson Santos (out)
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- Giovane (out)
- L. Marianucci (out)
- S. McTominay (out)
- A. Meret (out)
- L. Spinazzola (out)
Most regular starters
Villarreal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Saliba4/5
- P. Gueye4/5
- T. Buchanan4/5
- A. Freeman3/5
- R. Veiga3/5
- Alberto Moleiro2/5
- Ayoze Pérez2/5
- G. Mikautadze2/5
- G. Moreno2/5
- Ilias Akhomach2/5
- N. Pepe2/5
Napoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rrahmani4/5
- G. Di Lorenzo4/5
- M. Politano4/5
- R. Hojlund4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- S. Lobotka4/5
- A. Meret3/5
- A. Vergara2/5
- Alisson Santos2/5
- B. Gilmour2/5
- F. Anguissa2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Villarreal vs Napoli prediction?
Our AI gives Villarreal a 61% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Napoli 20%. Villarreal are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Villarreal vs Napoli?
2-1 (8.9%), followed by 3-1 (7.3%), 1-1 (7.2%), 2-0 (6.4%) and 2-2 (6.2%).
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Napoli?
The probability that both Villarreal and Napoli score is 69%. Villarreal have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Napoli 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Villarreal vs Napoli?
The model expects 3.87 goals (2.47 for Villarreal, 1.40 for Napoli). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 74%, over 3.5 goals 54%.
When and where is Villarreal vs Napoli played?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal.
What form are Villarreal and Napoli in?
Villarreal: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 10 conceded). Napoli: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Napoli?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Napoli and 1 draw. The most recent ended Napoli 2-3 Villarreal (Dec 17, 2022).
How is the Villarreal vs Napoli prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.47 for Villarreal, 1.40 for Napoli) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Villarreal predictions
- All Napoli predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology