UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Villarreal vs Napoli: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Villarreal 3-1 Napoli. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Villarreal at 46%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
Match analysis
Villarreal and Napoli met on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal. Before kick-off, our model gave Villarreal a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Napoli 28%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (12.1%) and 2-1 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Napoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Villarreal score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Napoli score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Villarreal sit 21st with 0 points from 1 games, Napoli 27th with 0 points from 1. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Villarreal have averaged 2.02 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.04 for Napoli.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Napoli and 1 draw. The most recent ended Napoli 2-3 Villarreal (Dec 17, 2022). Villarreal out or doubtful: T. Buchanan and N. Pepe. Napoli: A. Buongiorno, Alisson Santos, F. Anguissa, C. Favasuli, M. Olivera, A. Vergara and L. Marianucci. In double chance terms, "Villarreal or draw" stands at 72%, "Napoli or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Villarreal are favourites for this Villarreal v Napoli, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Napoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Napoli will be without A. Buongiorno and Alisson Santos.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Villarreal – Napoli. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Villarreal 1-1 Napoli | 12.6% |
| Villarreal 1-0 Napoli | 12.1% |
| Villarreal 2-1 Napoli | 9.0% |
| Villarreal 0-1 Napoli | 8.9% |
| Villarreal 2-0 Napoli | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.42 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.04 for Napoli, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 45% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Napoli in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Villarreal expected goals | 1.42 |
| Napoli expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 35% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| Napoli | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2022 | Napoli 2-3 Villarreal | Club Friendlies |
| Feb 25, 2016 | Napoli 1-1 Villarreal | UEFA Europa League |
| Feb 18, 2016 | Villarreal 1-0 Napoli | UEFA Europa League |
| Dec 7, 2011 | Villarreal 0-2 Napoli | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 27, 2011 | Napoli 2-0 Villarreal | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Villarreal
- T. Buchanan (out)
- N. Pepe (out)
Napoli
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- Alisson Santos (out)
- F. Anguissa (out)
- C. Favasuli (out)
- M. Olivera (out)
- A. Vergara (out)
- L. Marianucci (out)
Most regular starters
Villarreal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Gueye4/5
- P. Gulacsi4/5
- P. Navarro4/5
- R. Veiga4/5
- T. Buchanan4/5
- A. Freeman3/5
- N. Saliba3/5
- S. Cardona3/5
- S. Comesana3/5
- A. Moleiro2/5
- A. Perez2/5
Napoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Di Lorenzo5/5
- S. Lobotka5/5
- A. Rrahmani4/5
- K. De Bruyne4/5
- M. Politano4/5
- R. Hojlund4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- A. Meret3/5
- B. Gilmour3/5
- L. Spinazzola3/5
- A. Vergara2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sabah FA 2-0 Slavia PrahaOct 13, 2026
- Lens 0-2 Sporting CPOct 13, 2026
- Galatasaray 1-4 BarcelonaOct 13, 2026
- Inter 3-4 Club Brugge KVOct 13, 2026
- Arsenal 3-0 LilleOct 13, 2026
- RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV EindhovenOct 13, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester UnitedOct 13, 2026
- Viking 3-3 Bayern MünchenOct 13, 2026
- Feyenoord 3-2 ComoOct 14, 2026
- Lask Linz 3-6 LiverpoolOct 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Villarreal vs Napoli prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Villarreal a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Napoli 28%. Villarreal are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Villarreal vs Napoli?
1-1 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (12.1%), 2-1 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Napoli?
The probability that both Villarreal and Napoli score is 49%. Villarreal have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Napoli 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Villarreal vs Napoli?
The model expects 2.46 goals (1.42 for Villarreal, 1.04 for Napoli). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Villarreal vs Napoli played?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal.
What form are Villarreal and Napoli in?
Villarreal: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Napoli: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Napoli?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Napoli and 1 draw. The most recent ended Napoli 2-3 Villarreal (Dec 17, 2022).
What was the Villarreal vs Napoli result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Villarreal 3-1 Napoli. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Villarreal at 46%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
How is the Villarreal vs Napoli prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.42 for Villarreal, 1.04 for Napoli) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Villarreal predictions
- All Napoli predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology