UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Lens vs Sporting CP prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Lens vs Sporting CP kicks off on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Lens 43%, Sporting CP 37% and the draw 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (7.5%), ahead of 2-2 (7.3%) and 1-1 (7.1%).
Lens have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 12 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Sporting CP. On average Lens score 1.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Sporting CP score 2.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Lens sit 10th with 3 points from 1 games, Sporting CP 7th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lens have averaged 1.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.14 for Sporting CP.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lens and Sporting CP: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Lens out or doubtful: S. Abdulhamid, S. Baidoo, J. Chavez, M. Nawrocki and Y. Titraoui. In double chance terms, "Lens or draw" stands at 63%, "Sporting CP or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Lens and Sporting CP meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 20%). On recent form, Lens have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Sporting CP have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. One to watch: Lens will be without S. Abdulhamid and S. Baidoo.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lens – Sporting CP. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lens 2-1 Sporting CP | 7.5% |
| Lens 2-2 Sporting CP | 7.3% |
| Lens 1-1 Sporting CP | 7.1% |
| Lens 1-2 Sporting CP | 6.9% |
| Lens 3-1 Sporting CP | 5.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.05 goals in total (2.11 for Lens, 1.94 for Sporting CP): over 2.5 goals has a 77% probability and both teams to score 75%. Everything points to an open game. Lens keep a clean sheet in 14% of scenarios, Sporting CP in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lens expected goals | 2.11 |
| Sporting CP expected goals | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% |
| Lens clean sheet | 14% |
| Sporting CP clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lens
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
Sporting CP
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray · UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nacional · Primeira Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Rio Ave · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Sporting CP | 7 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lens and Sporting CP: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Lens
- S. Abdulhamid (out)
- S. Baidoo (out)
- J. Chavez (out)
- M. Nawrocki (out)
- Y. Titraoui (out)
Sporting CP
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Lens
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Abdallah Sima3/5
- Florian Thauvin3/5
- Matthieu Udol3/5
- Robin Risser3/5
- A. Haidara2/5
- A. Sima2/5
- F. Thauvin2/5
- Ismaelo Ganiou2/5
- K. Antonio2/5
- Kyllian Antonio2/5
- M. Udol2/5
Sporting CP
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Doumbia5/5
- G. Catamo4/5
- G. Inacio4/5
- L. Suarez4/5
- M. Araujo4/5
- R. Silva4/5
- R. Zalazar4/5
- S. Altimira4/5
- Z. Debast4/5
- F. Goncalves3/5
- I. Fresneda3/5
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Lens vs Sporting CP prediction?
Our AI gives Lens a 43% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sporting CP 37%. Lens are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lens vs Sporting CP?
2-1 (7.5%), followed by 2-2 (7.3%), 1-1 (7.1%), 1-2 (6.9%) and 3-1 (5.3%).
Will both teams score in Lens vs Sporting CP?
The probability that both Lens and Sporting CP score is 75%. Lens have a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sporting CP 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Lens vs Sporting CP?
The model expects 4.05 goals (2.11 for Lens, 1.94 for Sporting CP). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.
When and where is Lens vs Sporting CP played?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens.
What form are Lens and Sporting CP in?
Lens: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded). Sporting CP: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Lens vs Sporting CP prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.11 for Lens, 1.94 for Sporting CP) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lens predictions
- All Sporting CP predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology