UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Arsenal vs Lille: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Arsenal 3-0 Lille. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Arsenal was the model's favourite outcome (80%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.0%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): correct.
Match analysis
Arsenal vs Lille was played on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Emirates Stadium, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Arsenal a 80% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Lille 7%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.0%), ahead of 3-0 (11.0%) and 1-0 (8.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Arsenal score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Lille score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Arsenal sit 15th with 3 points from 1 games, Lille 22nd with 0 points from 1. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Arsenal have averaged 2.33 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.35 for Lille.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Arsenal and Lille: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Arsenal out or doubtful: W. Saliba, C. Tzolis, P. Hincapie and M. Zubimendi. Lille: H. Igamane, E. Mbappe (suspended) and T. Santos. In double chance terms, "Arsenal or draw" stands at 93%, "Lille or draw" at 20% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Arsenal are favourites for this Arsenal v Lille, with a 80% win probability from our model. In the table, Arsenal (15th, 3 pts) host Lille (22nd, 0 pts). One to watch: Arsenal will be without W. Saliba and C. Tzolis.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Arsenal – Lille. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 2-0 Lille | 12.0% |
| Arsenal 3-0 Lille | 11.0% |
| Arsenal 1-0 Lille | 8.8% |
| Arsenal 2-1 Lille | 8.4% |
| Arsenal 3-1 Lille | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.44 goals in total (2.74 for Arsenal, 0.70 for Lille): over 2.5 goals has a 67% probability and both teams to score 47%. Everything points to an open game. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Lille in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Arsenal expected goals | 2.74 |
| Lille expected goals | 0.70 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 50% |
| Lille clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich · EFL Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Napoli · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Zulte Waregem · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| Lille | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Arsenal and Lille: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Arsenal
- W. Saliba (out)
- C. Tzolis (out)
- P. Hincapie (out)
- M. Zubimendi (out)
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
- E. Mbappe (suspended)
- T. Santos (out)
Most regular starters
Arsenal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Saka4/5
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Konsa4/5
- B. White3/5
- D. Raya3/5
- Gabriel3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- M. Lewis-Skelly3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- R. Calafiori3/5
- C. Tzolis2/5
Lille
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Bentaleb4/4
- R. Perraud4/4
- A. Ueda3/4
- Alexsandro3/4
- B. Ozer3/4
- H. Haraldsson3/4
- N. Ngoy3/4
- T. Santos3/4
- B. Andre2/4
- B. Onal2/4
- D. Bakwa2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Sabah FA 2-0 Slavia PrahaOct 13, 2026
- Lens 0-2 Sporting CPOct 13, 2026
- Galatasaray 1-4 BarcelonaOct 13, 2026
- Inter 3-4 Club Brugge KVOct 13, 2026
- RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV EindhovenOct 13, 2026
- Villarreal 3-1 NapoliOct 13, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester UnitedOct 13, 2026
- Viking 3-3 Bayern MünchenOct 13, 2026
- Feyenoord 3-2 ComoOct 14, 2026
- Lask Linz 3-6 LiverpoolOct 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Arsenal vs Lille prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Arsenal a 80% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Lille 7%. Arsenal are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Arsenal vs Lille?
2-0 (12.0%), followed by 3-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%) and 3-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Lille?
The probability that both Arsenal and Lille score is 47%. Arsenal have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lille 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Arsenal vs Lille?
The model expects 3.44 goals (2.74 for Arsenal, 0.70 for Lille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Arsenal vs Lille played?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London.
What form are Arsenal and Lille in?
Arsenal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Lille: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).
What was the Arsenal vs Lille result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Arsenal 3-0 Lille. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Arsenal was the model's favourite outcome (80%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.0%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): correct.
How is the Arsenal vs Lille prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.74 for Arsenal, 0.70 for Lille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Arsenal predictions
- All Lille predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology