UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Arsenal vs Lille prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Arsenal vs Lille kicks off on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Emirates Stadium, London. With a 92% win probability, Arsenal go in as strong favourites against Lille (2%), with the draw rated at 6%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (10.3%), ahead of 4-0 (10.3%) and 5-0 (8.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Arsenal. On average Arsenal score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Lille score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Arsenal sit 15th with 3 points from 1 games, Lille 22nd with 0 points from 1. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Arsenal have averaged 2.05 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.33 for Lille.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Arsenal and Lille: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Arsenal out or doubtful: C. Mosquera, W. Saliba and B. White. Lille: H. Igamane and T. Nianzou. In double chance terms, "Arsenal or draw" stands at 98%, "Lille or draw" at 8% and "no draw" at 94%.
In short : Arsenal are favourites for this Arsenal v Lille, with a 92% win probability from our model. In the table, Arsenal (15th, 3 pts) host Lille (22nd, 0 pts). One to watch: Arsenal will be without C. Mosquera and W. Saliba.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Arsenal – Lille. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 3-0 Lille | 10.3% |
| Arsenal 4-0 Lille | 10.3% |
| Arsenal 5-0 Lille | 8.2% |
| Arsenal 2-0 Lille | 7.7% |
| Arsenal 3-1 Lille | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.64 goals in total (4.00 for Arsenal, 0.64 for Lille): over 2.5 goals has a 84% probability and both teams to score 46%. Everything points to an open game. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Lille in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Arsenal expected goals | 4.00 |
| Lille expected goals | 0.64 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 68% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 53% |
| Lille clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich · EFL Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Napoli · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| Lille | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Arsenal and Lille: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Arsenal
- C. Mosquera (out)
- W. Saliba (out)
- B. White (out)
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
- T. Nianzou (out)
Most regular starters
Arsenal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Saka4/5
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Konsa4/5
- B. White3/5
- C. Tzolis3/5
- D. Raya3/5
- Gabriel3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- M. Lewis-Skelly3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- R. Calafiori3/5
Lille
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Alexsandro Ribeiro4/5
- Tiago Santos4/5
- Berke Özer3/5
- Hakon Arnar Haraldsson3/5
- Nabil Bentaleb3/5
- Nathan Ngoy3/5
- A. Ueda2/5
- Benjamin André2/5
- Ethan Mbappé2/5
- H. Haraldsson2/5
- N. Bentaleb2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Arsenal vs Lille prediction?
Our AI gives Arsenal a 92% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Lille 2%. Arsenal are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Arsenal vs Lille?
3-0 (10.3%), followed by 4-0 (10.3%), 5-0 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.7%) and 3-1 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Lille?
The probability that both Arsenal and Lille score is 46%. Arsenal have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lille 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Arsenal vs Lille?
The model expects 4.64 goals (4.00 for Arsenal, 0.64 for Lille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 84%, over 3.5 goals 68%.
When and where is Arsenal vs Lille played?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London.
What form are Arsenal and Lille in?
Arsenal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Lille: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Arsenal vs Lille prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Arsenal, 0.64 for Lille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Arsenal predictions
- All Lille predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology