Skip to content
Elofoot

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid2 – 0Manchester UnitedManchester United

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester United. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Manchester United (47%), while victory for Atletico Madrid was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.

Match analysis

Atletico Madrid and Manchester United met on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Madrid a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Manchester United 47%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.3%), followed by 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-1 (9.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Manchester United have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 6. Atletico Madrid therefore arrive in far better shape than Manchester United. On average Atletico Madrid score 2.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Manchester United score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Atletico Madrid sit 26th with 0 points from 1 games, Manchester United 4th with 3 points from 1. 22 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.84 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.13 for Manchester United.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Manchester United and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester United 2-1 Atletico Madrid (Aug 1, 2026). Atletico Madrid out or doubtful: R. Mendoza and O. Vargas. Manchester United: P. Dorgu, T. Heaton, N. Mazraoui, B. Sesko, M. Ugarte, M. de Ligt, K. Darlow and K. Mainoo. In double chance terms, "Atletico Madrid or draw" stands at 53%, "Manchester United or draw" at 71% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Manchester United are favourites for this Atletico Madrid v Manchester United, with a 47% win probability from our model. On recent form, Atletico Madrid are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Manchester United have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Manchester United will be without P. Dorgu and T. Heaton.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

29%
Atletico Madrid (Win)
24%
Draw
47%
Manchester United (Win)

Double chance

53%
Atletico Madrid or draw
71%
Manchester United or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Atletico Madrid – Manchester United. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Atletico Madrid 1-1 Manchester United11.3%
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Manchester United9.4%
Atletico Madrid 0-1 Manchester United9.0%
Atletico Madrid 0-2 Manchester United7.4%
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Manchester United7.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.26 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.66 for Manchester United, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 58%. Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Manchester United in 28%.

Probability
Atletico Madrid expected goals1.26
Manchester United expected goals1.66
Both teams to score58%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Atletico Madrid clean sheet19%
Manchester United clean sheet28%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Atletico Madrid

DateOpponentScore
Oct 10, 2026Alaves · La Liga2-1W
Sep 20, 2026Real Madrid · La Liga2-1W
Sep 16, 2026Osasuna · La Liga4-0W
Sep 13, 2026Real Sociedad · La Liga3-0W
Sep 9, 2026Liverpool · UEFA Champions League1-2L

Manchester United

DateOpponentScore
Oct 10, 2026Tottenham · Premier League1-1D
Sep 20, 2026Fulham · Premier League1-1D
Sep 16, 2026Brighton · EFL Cup2-3L
Sep 13, 2026Manchester City · Premier League0-1L
Sep 10, 2026Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League4-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Atletico Madrid2601
Manchester United431

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 1, 2026Manchester United 2-1 Atletico MadridClub Friendlies
Jul 30, 2022Atletico Madrid 1-0 Manchester UnitedClub Friendlies
Jul 30, 2022Atletico Madrid 1-0 Manchester UnitedClub Friendlies
Mar 15, 2022Manchester United 0-1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
Feb 23, 2022Atletico Madrid 1-1 Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Atletico Madrid

  • R. Mendoza (out)
  • O. Vargas (out)

Manchester United

  • P. Dorgu (out)
  • T. Heaton (out)
  • N. Mazraoui (out)
  • B. Sesko (out)
  • M. Ugarte (out)
  • M. de Ligt (out)
  • K. Darlow (out)
  • K. Mainoo (out)

Most regular starters

Atletico Madrid

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • C. Romero5/5
  • J. Oblak5/5
  • A. Baena4/5
  • G. Simeone4/5
  • Lee Kang-In4/5
  • M. Llorente4/5
  • A. Grimaldo3/5
  • A. Lookman3/5
  • D. Hancko3/5
  • J. Cardoso3/5
  • J. David3/5

Manchester United

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Y. Tielemans5/5
  • B. Mbeumo4/5
  • K. Mainoo4/5
  • S. Lammens4/5
  • H. Maguire3/5
  • L. Yoro3/5
  • M. Rashford3/5
  • B. Fernandes2/5
  • B. Šeško2/5
  • Bruno Fernandes2/5
  • D. Dalot2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Madrid a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Manchester United 47%. Manchester United are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?

1-1 (11.3%), followed by 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (7.4%) and 2-1 (7.1%).

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?

The probability that both Atletico Madrid and Manchester United score is 58%. Atletico Madrid have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester United 28%.

How many goals should we expect in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?

The model expects 2.92 goals (1.26 for Atletico Madrid, 1.66 for Manchester United). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.

When and where is Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United played?

Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid.

What form are Atletico Madrid and Manchester United in?

Atletico Madrid: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded). Manchester United: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Manchester United?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Manchester United and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester United 2-1 Atletico Madrid (Aug 1, 2026).

What was the Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester United. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Manchester United (47%), while victory for Atletico Madrid was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.

How is the Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.26 for Atletico Madrid, 1.66 for Manchester United) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained