UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United kicks off on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid. Manchester United start as favourites with a 52% chance of victory; Atletico Madrid are given 24% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%) and 1-2 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Manchester United have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Atletico Madrid therefore arrive in far better shape than Manchester United. On average Atletico Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Manchester United score 1.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Atletico Madrid sit 26th with 0 points from 1 games, Manchester United 4th with 3 points from 1. 22 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.10 for Manchester United.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Manchester United and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester United 2-1 Atletico Madrid (Aug 1, 2026). Atletico Madrid out or doubtful: P. Barrios and A. Sorloth. Manchester United: A. Diallo, T. Heaton, B. Sesko, M. Ugarte and M. de Ligt. In double chance terms, "Atletico Madrid or draw" stands at 48%, "Manchester United or draw" at 76% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Manchester United are favourites for this Atletico Madrid v Manchester United, with a 52% win probability from our model. On recent form, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Manchester United have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Manchester United will be without A. Diallo and T. Heaton.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Madrid – Manchester United. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid 1-1 Manchester United | 11.6% |
| Atletico Madrid 0-1 Manchester United | 11.0% |
| Atletico Madrid 1-2 Manchester United | 9.6% |
| Atletico Madrid 0-2 Manchester United | 9.2% |
| Atletico Madrid 1-0 Manchester United | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.05 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.66 for Manchester United, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Manchester United in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 1.05 |
| Manchester United expected goals | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 19% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton · EFL Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 26 | 0 | 1 |
| Manchester United | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United 2-1 Atletico Madrid | Club Friendlies |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Manchester United | Club Friendlies |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Manchester United | Club Friendlies |
| Mar 15, 2022 | Manchester United 0-1 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Manchester United | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Madrid
- P. Barrios (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
Manchester United
- A. Diallo (out)
- T. Heaton (out)
- B. Sesko (out)
- M. Ugarte (out)
- M. de Ligt (out)
Most regular starters
Atletico Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Oblak5/5
- Lee Kang-In5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- C. Romero4/5
- D. Hancko4/5
- G. Simeone4/5
- M. Llorente4/5
- A. Grimaldo3/5
- A. Lookman3/5
- M. Pubill3/5
- J. Cardoso2/5
Manchester United
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Y. Tielemans5/5
- B. Mbeumo4/5
- K. Mainoo4/5
- M. Rashford4/5
- S. Lammens4/5
- H. Maguire3/5
- B. Fernandes2/5
- B. Šeško2/5
- Bruno Fernandes2/5
- D. Dalot2/5
- Diogo Dalot2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico Madrid a 24% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Manchester United 52%. Manchester United are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%), 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (9.2%) and 1-0 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
The probability that both Atletico Madrid and Manchester United score is 53%. Atletico Madrid have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester United 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
The model expects 2.71 goals (1.05 for Atletico Madrid, 1.66 for Manchester United). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United played?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Manchester United in?
Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Manchester United: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Manchester United?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Manchester United and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester United 2-1 Atletico Madrid (Aug 1, 2026).
How is the Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.05 for Atletico Madrid, 1.66 for Manchester United) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
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