UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV Eindhoven. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for RB Leipzig at 59%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): missed.
Match analysis
RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven met on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. Before kick-off, our model gave RB Leipzig a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and PSV Eindhoven 21%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (9.6%), followed by 1-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. PSV Eindhoven therefore arrive in far better shape than RB Leipzig. On average RB Leipzig score 2.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; PSV Eindhoven score 2.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, RB Leipzig sit 32nd with 0 points from 1 games, PSV Eindhoven 19th with 1 points from 1. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, RB Leipzig have averaged 2.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.42 for PSV Eindhoven.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. RB Leipzig out or doubtful: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo, A. Kone and L. Zingerle. PSV Eindhoven: S. Lammers, A. Nagalo, S. Ouaissa (doubtful), R. Pepi, A. Plea, J. Schouten, K. Sildillia and P. Wanner. In double chance terms, "RB Leipzig or draw" stands at 79%, "PSV Eindhoven or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs RB Leipzig to edge PSV Eindhoven (59% probability). On recent form, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 67%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig 2-1 PSV Eindhoven | 9.6% |
| RB Leipzig 1-1 PSV Eindhoven | 8.7% |
| RB Leipzig 2-0 PSV Eindhoven | 7.6% |
| RB Leipzig 3-1 PSV Eindhoven | 7.1% |
| RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV Eindhoven | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.21 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.26 for PSV Eindhoven, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 67% and "both teams to score" at 64%. Goals look likely in this one. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, PSV Eindhoven in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 2.21 |
| PSV Eindhoven expected goals | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 28% |
| PSV Eindhoven clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 6-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
PSV Eindhoven
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Heerenveen · Eredivisie | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ajax · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 32 | 0 | 1 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 19 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
RB Leipzig
- C. Baumgartner (out)
- M. Guiu (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- A. Kone (out)
- L. Zingerle (out)
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Lammers (out)
- A. Nagalo (out)
- S. Ouaissa (doubtful)
- R. Pepi (out)
- A. Plea (out)
- J. Schouten (out)
- K. Sildillia (out)
- P. Wanner (out)
Most regular starters
RB Leipzig
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Nusa5/5
- D. Raum5/5
- M. Vandevoordt5/5
- N. El Aynaoui5/5
- C. Nkunku4/5
- E. Banzuzi4/5
- R. Baku4/5
- C. Lukeba3/5
- W. Orban3/5
- A. MaksimoviÄ2/5
- B. Gruda2/5
PSV Eindhoven
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Obispo5/5
- G. Til5/5
- K. Sano5/5
- S. Dest5/5
- L. Geertruida4/5
- R. van Bommel4/5
- M. Kovar3/5
- Mauro Junior3/5
- P. Wanner3/5
- R. Pepi3/5
- E. Bajraktarevic2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sabah FA 2-0 Slavia PrahaOct 13, 2026
- Lens 0-2 Sporting CPOct 13, 2026
- Galatasaray 1-4 BarcelonaOct 13, 2026
- Inter 3-4 Club Brugge KVOct 13, 2026
- Arsenal 3-0 LilleOct 13, 2026
- Villarreal 3-1 NapoliOct 13, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester UnitedOct 13, 2026
- Viking 3-3 Bayern MünchenOct 13, 2026
- Feyenoord 3-2 ComoOct 14, 2026
- Lask Linz 3-6 LiverpoolOct 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave RB Leipzig a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and PSV Eindhoven 21%. RB Leipzig are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
2-1 (9.6%), followed by 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.1%) and 1-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
The probability that both RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven score is 64%. RB Leipzig have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, PSV Eindhoven 11%.
How many goals should we expect in RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model expects 3.47 goals (2.21 for RB Leipzig, 1.26 for PSV Eindhoven). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 46%.
When and where is RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven played?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.
What form are RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven in?
RB Leipzig: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 9 conceded). PSV Eindhoven: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded).
What was the RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV Eindhoven. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for RB Leipzig at 59%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): missed.
How is the RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.21 for RB Leipzig, 1.26 for PSV Eindhoven) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- All PSV Eindhoven predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology