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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain: 2-4 result and AI prediction review

Manchester CityManchester City2 – 4Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Manchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Manchester City (48%), while victory for Paris Saint Germain was rated at only 29%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (61%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): correct.

Match analysis

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain was played on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester. Before kick-off, our model gave Manchester City a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paris Saint Germain 29%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.6%), ahead of 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-0 (7.9%).

Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Paris Saint Germain have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Manchester City. On average Manchester City score 3.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Paris Saint Germain score 2.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Manchester City sit 9th with 3 points from 1 games, Paris Saint Germain 5th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Manchester City have averaged 1.88 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.58 for Paris Saint Germain.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Manchester City, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 4-2 Manchester City (Jan 22, 2025). Manchester City out or doubtful: P. Foden (suspended). Paris Saint Germain: O. Dembele, A. Longoni, S. Mayulu and N. Mendes. In double chance terms, "Manchester City or draw" stands at 71%, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 77%.

In short : Manchester City are favourites for this Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain, with a 47% win probability from our model. On recent form, Manchester City are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while Paris Saint Germain are in good shape (4 wins in 5). One to watch: Paris Saint Germain will be without O. Dembele and A. Longoni.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

48%
Manchester City (Win)
23%
Draw
29%
Paris Saint Germain (Win)

Double chance

71%
Manchester City or draw
53%
Paris Saint Germain or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Manchester City – Paris Saint Germain. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Manchester City 1-1 Paris Saint Germain10.6%
Manchester City 2-1 Paris Saint Germain9.3%
Manchester City 1-0 Paris Saint Germain7.9%
Manchester City 1-2 Paris Saint Germain7.1%
Manchester City 2-0 Paris Saint Germain7.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.10 goals in total (1.76 for Manchester City, 1.34 for Paris Saint Germain): over 2.5 goals has a 60% probability and both teams to score 61%. Everything points to an open game. Manchester City keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Paris Saint Germain in 17%.

Probability
Manchester City expected goals1.76
Paris Saint Germain expected goals1.34
Both teams to score61%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Manchester City clean sheet26%
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet17%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Manchester City

DateOpponentScore
Oct 11, 2026Liverpool · Premier League3-0W
Sep 20, 2026Sunderland · Premier League5-3W
Sep 17, 2026Norwich · EFL Cup5-0W
Sep 13, 2026Manchester United · Premier League1-0W
Sep 8, 2026FC Porto · UEFA Champions League2-0W

Paris Saint Germain

DateOpponentScore
Oct 10, 2026Le Mans · Ligue 13-1W
Sep 20, 2026Marseille · Ligue 12-1W
Sep 13, 2026Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 11-0W
Sep 9, 2026Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League6-1W
Sep 4, 2026Monaco · Ligue 11-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Manchester City931
Paris Saint Germain531

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 22, 2025Paris Saint Germain 4-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
Nov 24, 2021Manchester City 2-1 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
Sep 28, 2021Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
May 4, 2021Manchester City 2-0 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
Apr 28, 2021Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Manchester City

  • P. Foden (suspended)

Paris Saint Germain

  • O. Dembele (out)
  • A. Longoni (out)
  • S. Mayulu (out)
  • N. Mendes (out)

Most regular starters

Manchester City

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • R. Cherki5/5
  • A. Semenyo4/5
  • E. Haaland4/5
  • G. Donnarumma4/5
  • E. Anderson3/5
  • E. Fernandez3/5
  • J. Gvardiol3/5
  • M. Guehi3/5
  • M. Nunes3/5
  • R. Dias3/5
  • A. Bouaddi2/5

Paris Saint Germain

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • M. Safonov5/5
  • A. Hakimi4/5
  • Vitinha4/5
  • W. Pacho4/5
  • F. Ruiz3/5
  • J. Neves3/5
  • K. Kvaratskhelia3/5
  • M. Akliouche3/5
  • Marquinhos3/5
  • N. Mendes3/5
  • O. Dembele3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Manchester City a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paris Saint Germain 29%. Manchester City are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-4.

What is the most likely correct score for Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?

1-1 (10.6%), followed by 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.1%) and 2-0 (7.0%).

Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?

The probability that both Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain score is 61%. Manchester City have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paris Saint Germain 17%.

How many goals should we expect in Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?

The model expects 3.10 goals (1.76 for Manchester City, 1.34 for Paris Saint Germain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.

When and where is Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain played?

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester.

What form are Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain in?

Manchester City: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 3 conceded). Paris Saint Germain: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Manchester City, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 4-2 Manchester City (Jan 22, 2025).

What was the Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Manchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Manchester City (48%), while victory for Paris Saint Germain was rated at only 29%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (61%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): correct.

How is the Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.76 for Manchester City, 1.34 for Paris Saint Germain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained