UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: the Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC match is scheduled on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Stamford Bridge, London. Our model makes AEK Athens FC clear favourites: a 68% chance of winning, against 18% for the draw and 14% for Shakhtar Donetsk. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.6%), followed by 0-2 (9.4%) and 1-1 (7.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Shakhtar Donetsk have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 17 and conceding 2. AEK Athens FC therefore arrive in far better shape than Shakhtar Donetsk. On average Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; AEK Athens FC score 3.40 and concede 0.40. In the table, Shakhtar Donetsk sit 18th with 1 points from 1 games, AEK Athens FC 16th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1 for AEK Athens FC and 0 draws. The most recent ended AEK Athens FC 5-0 Shakhtar Donetsk (Jul 13, 2023). In double chance terms, "Shakhtar Donetsk or draw" stands at 32%, "AEK Athens FC or draw" at 86% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : AEK Athens FC are tipped by our AI model in this Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC (68%). In the table, Shakhtar Donetsk (18th, 1 pts) host AEK Athens FC (16th, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens FC. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk 1-2 AEK Athens FC | 9.6% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 0-2 AEK Athens FC | 9.4% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 AEK Athens FC | 7.9% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 AEK Athens FC | 7.8% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 1-3 AEK Athens FC | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.02 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2.42 for AEK Athens FC, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 67% and "both teams to score" at 58%. Goals look likely in this one. Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 9% of scenarios, AEK Athens FC in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals | 1.02 |
| AEK Athens FC expected goals | 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet | 9% |
| AEK Athens FC clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Shakhtar Donetsk
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi · Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Chornomorets · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Karpaty · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Polessya · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
AEK Athens FC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Panserraikos · Cup | 8-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis · Super League 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lask Linz · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis · Super League 1 | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Nestos Chrisoupolis · Cup | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 18 | 1 | 1 |
| AEK Athens FC | 16 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2023 | AEK Athens FC 5-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | Club Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Shakhtar Donetsk
No absences reported.
AEK Athens FC
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Shakhtar Donetsk
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Riznyk4/4
- O. Ocheretko4/4
- M. Matvienko3/4
- Newerton3/4
- Pedro Henrique3/4
- V. Bondar3/4
- A. Ghram2/4
- G. Mendoza2/4
- Luca Meirelles2/4
- Marlon Gomes2/4
- O. Karavaev2/4
AEK Athens FC
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Brignoli3/4
- H. Moukoudi3/4
- L. Majer3/4
- L. Rota3/4
- R. Marin3/4
- B. Varga2/4
- F. Relvas2/4
- K. Arriaga2/4
- L. Jovic2/4
- M. Gacinovic2/4
- M. Vitalis2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC prediction?
Our AI gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 14% chance of winning, the draw 18% and AEK Athens FC 68%. AEK Athens FC are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?
1-2 (9.6%), followed by 0-2 (9.4%), 1-1 (7.9%), 0-1 (7.8%) and 1-3 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?
The probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC score is 58%. Shakhtar Donetsk have a 9% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AEK Athens FC 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?
The model expects 3.44 goals (1.02 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 2.42 for AEK Athens FC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC played?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Stamford Bridge, London.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC in?
Shakhtar Donetsk: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). AEK Athens FC: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1 for AEK Athens FC and 0 draws. The most recent ended AEK Athens FC 5-0 Shakhtar Donetsk (Jul 13, 2023).
How is the Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.02 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 2.42 for AEK Athens FC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Shakhtar Donetsk predictions
- All AEK Athens FC predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology