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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC: 3-1 result and AI prediction review

Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk3 – 1AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens FC. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AEK Athens FC (37%), while victory for Shakhtar Donetsk was rated at only 36%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.

Match analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC met on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Stamford Bridge, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Shakhtar Donetsk a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and AEK Athens FC 37%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%) and 1-0 (10.8%).

Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 0. AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 15 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.80 and concede 0.00 goals per game; AEK Athens FC score 3.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Shakhtar Donetsk sit 23rd with 1 points from 1 games, AEK Athens FC 17th with 3 points from 1. 6 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1 for AEK Athens FC and 0 draws. The most recent ended AEK Athens FC 5-0 Shakhtar Donetsk (Jul 13, 2023). In double chance terms, "Shakhtar Donetsk or draw" stands at 63%, "AEK Athens FC or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : Shakhtar Donetsk host AEK Athens FC in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (28%). In the table, Shakhtar Donetsk (23rd, 1 pts) host AEK Athens FC (17th, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

36%
Shakhtar Donetsk (Win)
28%
Draw
37%
AEK Athens FC (Win)

Double chance

63%
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw
64%
AEK Athens FC or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens FC. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 AEK Athens FC13.1%
Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 AEK Athens FC11.0%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 AEK Athens FC10.8%
Shakhtar Donetsk 0-0 AEK Athens FC9.1%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1-2 AEK Athens FC7.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.19 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.21 for AEK Athens FC, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 43% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, AEK Athens FC in 30%.

Probability
Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals1.19
AEK Athens FC expected goals1.21
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet30%
AEK Athens FC clean sheet30%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Shakhtar Donetsk

DateOpponentScore
Oct 9, 2026Veres Rivne · Premier League3-0W
Oct 2, 2026Kryvbas KR · Club Friendlies3-0W
Sep 20, 2026LNZ Cherkasy · Premier League3-0W
Sep 17, 2026Vilkhivtsi · Cup3-0W
Sep 14, 2026Chornomorets · Premier League2-0W

AEK Athens FC

DateOpponentScore
Oct 10, 2026OFI · Super League 13-0W
Sep 20, 2026Volos NFC · Super League 12-1W
Sep 17, 2026Panserraikos · Cup8-1W
Sep 13, 2026Asteras Tripolis · Super League 11-1D
Sep 8, 2026Lask Linz · UEFA Champions League1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Shakhtar Donetsk2311
AEK Athens FC1731

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 13, 2023AEK Athens FC 5-0 Shakhtar DonetskClub Friendlies

Out and doubtful

Shakhtar Donetsk

No absences reported.

AEK Athens FC

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Shakhtar Donetsk

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Kryskiv3/5
  • D. Riznyk3/5
  • M. Matvienko3/5
  • Marlon Gomes3/5
  • O. Karavaev3/5
  • Pedrinho3/5
  • Alisson2/5
  • K. Fesyun2/5
  • Kaua Elias2/5
  • Marlon2/5
  • Newerton2/5

AEK Athens FC

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Brignoli4/4
  • H. Moukoudi4/4
  • L. Majer4/4
  • R. Marin4/4
  • A. Koita3/4
  • F. Relvas3/4
  • L. Jovic3/4
  • L. Rota3/4
  • M. Gacinovic2/4
  • M. Vitalis2/4
  • S. Pilo2/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Shakhtar Donetsk a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and AEK Athens FC 37%. AEK Athens FC are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?

1-1 (13.1%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.1%) and 1-2 (7.9%).

Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?

The probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC score is 49%. Shakhtar Donetsk have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AEK Athens FC 30%.

How many goals should we expect in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?

The model expects 2.40 goals (1.19 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1.21 for AEK Athens FC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.

When and where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC played?

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Stamford Bridge, London.

What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC in?

Shakhtar Donetsk: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 0 conceded). AEK Athens FC: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1 for AEK Athens FC and 0 draws. The most recent ended AEK Athens FC 5-0 Shakhtar Donetsk (Jul 13, 2023).

What was the Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens FC. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AEK Athens FC (37%), while victory for Shakhtar Donetsk was rated at only 36%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.

How is the Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.19 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1.21 for AEK Athens FC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained