UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: the Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe match is scheduled on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham. With a 92% win probability, Aston Villa go in as strong favourites against Fenerbahçe (2%), with the draw rated at 6%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (10.5%), ahead of 4-0 (10.5%) and 5-0 (8.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Aston Villa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Fenerbahçe have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Aston Villa score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Fenerbahçe score 1.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Aston Villa sit 9th with 3 points from 1 games, Fenerbahçe 20th with 1 points from 1. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Aston Villa have averaged 2.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.16 for Fenerbahçe.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Aston Villa, 0 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fenerbahçe 0-1 Aston Villa (Jan 22, 2026). Aston Villa out or doubtful: Alysson, M. Bizot, L. Goretzka, I. Maatsen, B. Madjo, A. Onana and P. Torres. Fenerbahçe: M. Muldur and J. Oosterwolde. In double chance terms, "Aston Villa or draw" stands at 98%, "Fenerbahçe or draw" at 8% and "no draw" at 94%.
In short : Aston Villa are favourites for this Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe, with a 92% win probability from our model. On recent form, Aston Villa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Fenerbahçe have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Aston Villa will be without Alysson and M. Bizot.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 3-0 Fenerbahçe | 10.5% |
| Aston Villa 4-0 Fenerbahçe | 10.5% |
| Aston Villa 5-0 Fenerbahçe | 8.4% |
| Aston Villa 2-0 Fenerbahçe | 7.9% |
| Aston Villa 3-1 Fenerbahçe | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.62 goals in total (4.00 for Aston Villa, 0.62 for Fenerbahçe): over 2.5 goals has a 84% probability and both teams to score 45%. Everything points to an open game. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, Fenerbahçe in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa expected goals | 4.00 |
| Fenerbahçe expected goals | 0.62 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 68% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 54% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Aston Villa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
Fenerbahçe
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Gaziantep FK · Süper Lig | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | AS Roma · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Beşiktaş · Süper Lig | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Samsunspor · Süper Lig | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Lyon · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Fenerbahçe | 20 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 0-1 Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Aston Villa
- Alysson (out)
- M. Bizot (out)
- L. Goretzka (out)
- I. Maatsen (out)
- B. Madjo (out)
- A. Onana (out)
- P. Torres (out)
Fenerbahçe
- M. Muldur (out)
- J. Oosterwolde (out)
Most regular starters
Aston Villa
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Wan-Bissaka4/5
- B. Kamara4/5
- N. Jackson4/5
- Z. Suzuki4/5
- E. Buendia3/5
- G. Hemmings3/5
- I. Maatsen3/5
- J. McGinn3/5
- R. Barkley3/5
- T. Mings3/5
- V. Lindelof3/5
Fenerbahçe
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Brown4/4
- Ederson4/4
- M. Greenwood4/4
- V. Muriqi4/4
- M. Guendouzi3/4
- M. Skriniar3/4
- N. Ake3/4
- N. Kante3/4
- N. Semedo3/4
- O. Aydin3/4
- I. Kahveci2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Galatasaray – BarcelonaOct 13, 2026
- Inter – Club Brugge KVOct 13, 2026
- Arsenal – LilleOct 13, 2026
- RB Leipzig – PSV EindhovenOct 13, 2026
- Villarreal – NapoliOct 13, 2026
- Feyenoord – ComoOct 14, 2026
- Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens FCOct 14, 2026
- Manchester City – Paris Saint GermainOct 14, 2026
- Bodo/Glimt – Borussia DortmundOct 14, 2026
- Slovan Bratislava – VfB StuttgartOct 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction?
Our AI gives Aston Villa a 92% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Fenerbahçe 2%. Aston Villa are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
3-0 (10.5%), followed by 4-0 (10.5%), 5-0 (8.4%), 2-0 (7.9%) and 3-1 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
The probability that both Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe score is 45%. Aston Villa have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fenerbahçe 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
The model expects 4.62 goals (4.00 for Aston Villa, 0.62 for Fenerbahçe). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 84%, over 3.5 goals 68%.
When and where is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe played?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham.
What form are Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe in?
Aston Villa: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). Fenerbahçe: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Aston Villa, 0 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fenerbahçe 0-1 Aston Villa (Jan 22, 2026).
How is the Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Aston Villa, 0.62 for Fenerbahçe) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aston Villa predictions
- All Fenerbahçe predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology