UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: 6-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Aston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Aston Villa was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe was played on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham. Before kick-off, our model gave Aston Villa a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fenerbahçe 18%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (12.6%), ahead of 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Aston Villa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 1. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Aston Villa score 2.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Fenerbahçe score 2.80 and concede 0.20. In the table, Aston Villa sit 11th with 3 points from 1 games, Fenerbahçe 24th with 1 points from 1. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Aston Villa have averaged 2.28 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.48 for Fenerbahçe.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Aston Villa, 0 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fenerbahçe 0-1 Aston Villa (Jan 22, 2026). Aston Villa out or doubtful: M. Cisse, L. Goretzka, I. Maatsen and A. Onana. Fenerbahçe: M. Muldur and J. Oosterwolde. In double chance terms, "Aston Villa or draw" stands at 82%, "Fenerbahçe or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Aston Villa are favourites for this Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe, with a 59% win probability from our model. On recent form, Aston Villa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Fenerbahçe have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. One to watch: Aston Villa will be without M. Cisse and L. Goretzka.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 1-0 Fenerbahçe | 12.6% |
| Aston Villa 2-0 Fenerbahçe | 11.2% |
| Aston Villa 1-1 Fenerbahçe | 10.9% |
| Aston Villa 2-1 Fenerbahçe | 9.7% |
| Aston Villa 0-0 Fenerbahçe | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.78 for Aston Villa, 0.87 for Fenerbahçe): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 48%. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Fenerbahçe in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa expected goals | 1.78 |
| Fenerbahçe expected goals | 0.87 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 42% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Aston Villa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
Fenerbahçe
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rizespor · Süper Lig | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Turan · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Eyüpspor · Süper Lig | 8-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Gaziantep FK · Süper Lig | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | AS Roma · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| Fenerbahçe | 24 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 0-1 Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Aston Villa
- M. Cisse (out)
- L. Goretzka (out)
- I. Maatsen (out)
- A. Onana (out)
Fenerbahçe
- M. Muldur (out)
- J. Oosterwolde (out)
Most regular starters
Aston Villa
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Kamara4/5
- T. Mings4/5
- A. Wan-Bissaka3/5
- E. Buendia3/5
- M. Ruggeri3/5
- N. Jackson3/5
- Z. Suzuki3/5
- G. Hemmings2/5
- J. McGinn2/5
- J. Manzambi2/5
- J. McGinn2/5
Fenerbahçe
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Brown4/5
- Ederson4/5
- M. Greenwood4/5
- M. Guendouzi3/5
- N. Kante3/5
- K. Akturkoglu2/5
- M. Skriniar2/5
- N. Ake2/5
- N. Semedo2/5
- V. Muriqi2/5
- A. Ekici1/5
Other matches in this competition
- Galatasaray 1-4 BarcelonaOct 13, 2026
- Inter 3-4 Club Brugge KVOct 13, 2026
- Feyenoord 3-2 ComoOct 14, 2026
- Lask Linz 3-6 LiverpoolOct 14, 2026
- Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens FCOct 14, 2026
- Manchester City 2-4 Paris Saint GermainOct 14, 2026
- AS Roma 3-4 Real MadridOct 14, 2026
- Real Betis 3-2 FC PortoOct 14, 2026
- Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Borussia DortmundOct 14, 2026
- Slovan Bratislava 0-3 VfB StuttgartOct 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Aston Villa a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fenerbahçe 18%. Aston Villa are therefore favourites. Final score: 6-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
1-0 (12.6%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
The probability that both Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe score is 48%. Aston Villa have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fenerbahçe 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.78 for Aston Villa, 0.87 for Fenerbahçe). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe played?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham.
What form are Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe in?
Aston Villa: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 8 conceded). Fenerbahçe: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 1 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Aston Villa, 0 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fenerbahçe 0-1 Aston Villa (Jan 22, 2026).
What was the Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Aston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Aston Villa was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.78 for Aston Villa, 0.87 for Fenerbahçe) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aston Villa predictions
- All Fenerbahçe predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology