UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: FC Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FC Porto (65%), while victory for PSV Eindhoven was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (57%): missed.
Match analysis
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven was played on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto. Before kick-off, our model gave FC Porto a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and PSV Eindhoven 15%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (11.1%), ahead of 1-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, FC Porto have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with FC Porto. On average FC Porto score 2.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; PSV Eindhoven score 1.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, FC Porto sit 30th with 0 points from 2 games, PSV Eindhoven 26th with 1 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, FC Porto have averaged 1.48 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.92 for PSV Eindhoven.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. FC Porto out or doubtful: Gabriel Mec, D. Prpic, V. Sousa and William Gomes. PSV Eindhoven: S. Lammers, A. Nagalo, S. Ouaissa, R. Pepi, A. Plea, J. Schouten, K. Sildillia and P. Wanner. In double chance terms, "FC Porto or draw" stands at 85%, "PSV Eindhoven or draw" at 35% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs FC Porto to edge PSV Eindhoven (65% probability). In the table, FC Porto (30th, 0 pts) host PSV Eindhoven (26th, 1 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 57%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Porto – PSV Eindhoven. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Porto 2-0 PSV Eindhoven | 11.1% |
| FC Porto 1-0 PSV Eindhoven | 10.6% |
| FC Porto 2-1 PSV Eindhoven | 9.9% |
| FC Porto 1-1 PSV Eindhoven | 9.4% |
| FC Porto 3-0 PSV Eindhoven | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.98 goals in total (2.09 for FC Porto, 0.89 for PSV Eindhoven): over 2.5 goals has a 57% probability and both teams to score 52%. FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, PSV Eindhoven in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Porto expected goals | 2.09 |
| PSV Eindhoven expected goals | 0.89 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| FC Porto clean sheet | 41% |
| PSV Eindhoven clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FC Porto
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 4-1 | W |
PSV Eindhoven
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 13, 2026 | RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Heerenveen · Eredivisie | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 30 | 0 | 2 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 26 | 1 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
FC Porto
- Gabriel Mec (out)
- D. Prpic (out)
- V. Sousa (out)
- William Gomes (out)
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Lammers (out)
- A. Nagalo (out)
- S. Ouaissa (out)
- R. Pepi (out)
- A. Plea (out)
- J. Schouten (out)
- K. Sildillia (out)
- P. Wanner (out)
Most regular starters
FC Porto
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Costa4/5
- J. Kiwior4/5
- Pepê4/5
- William Gomes4/5
- A. Varela3/5
- Andre Silva3/5
- D. Costa3/5
- F. Moura3/5
- J. Bednarek3/5
- P. Rosario3/5
- G. Veiga2/5
PSV Eindhoven
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Obispo5/5
- G. Til5/5
- K. Sano5/5
- S. Dest5/5
- L. Geertruida4/5
- M. Kovar4/5
- Mauro Junior4/5
- S. Mijnans4/5
- R. van Bommel3/5
- E. Bajraktarevic2/5
- I. Perisic2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sabah FA 1-2 Borussia DortmundOct 20, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia PrahaOct 20, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridOct 20, 2026
- Liverpool 4-3 VillarrealOct 20, 2026
- Napoli 4-3 Bodo/GlimtOct 20, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 4-2 BarcelonaOct 20, 2026
- AS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaOct 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens FCOct 20, 2026
- Como 4-1 Manchester UnitedOct 21, 2026
- Lille 2-4 GalatasarayOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave FC Porto a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and PSV Eindhoven 15%. FC Porto are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
2-0 (11.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
The probability that both FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven score is 52%. FC Porto have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, PSV Eindhoven 12%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model expects 2.98 goals (2.09 for FC Porto, 0.89 for PSV Eindhoven). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 57%, over 3.5 goals 35%.
When and where is FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven played?
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto.
What form are FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven in?
FC Porto: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 7 conceded). PSV Eindhoven: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded).
What was the FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: FC Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FC Porto (65%), while victory for PSV Eindhoven was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (57%): missed.
How is the FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.09 for FC Porto, 0.89 for PSV Eindhoven) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Porto predictions
- All PSV Eindhoven predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology