UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
FC Porto take on PSV Eindhoven on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. With a 61% win probability, PSV Eindhoven go in as strong favourites against FC Porto (21%), with the draw rated at 18%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (8.4%), ahead of 1-3 (7.3%) and 1-1 (6.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, FC Porto have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 16 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average FC Porto score 2.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; PSV Eindhoven score 3.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, FC Porto sit 31st with 0 points from 1 games, PSV Eindhoven 19th with 1 points from 1. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, FC Porto have averaged 1.49 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.59 for PSV Eindhoven.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. PSV Eindhoven: S. Lammers, A. Nagalo, S. Ouaissa, A. Plea, J. Schouten and K. Sildillia. In double chance terms, "FC Porto or draw" stands at 39%, "PSV Eindhoven or draw" at 79% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Our model backs PSV Eindhoven to edge FC Porto (61% probability). In the table, FC Porto (31st, 0 pts) host PSV Eindhoven (19th, 1 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 77%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Porto – PSV Eindhoven. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Porto 1-2 PSV Eindhoven | 8.4% |
| FC Porto 1-3 PSV Eindhoven | 7.3% |
| FC Porto 1-1 PSV Eindhoven | 6.5% |
| FC Porto 2-2 PSV Eindhoven | 6.3% |
| FC Porto 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | 5.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.08 goals in total (1.49 for FC Porto, 2.59 for PSV Eindhoven): over 2.5 goals has a 77% probability and both teams to score 72%. Everything points to an open game. FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 8% of scenarios, PSV Eindhoven in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Porto expected goals | 1.49 |
| PSV Eindhoven expected goals | 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% |
| FC Porto clean sheet | 8% |
| PSV Eindhoven clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FC Porto
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manchester City · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 3-0 | W |
PSV Eindhoven
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ajax · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Utrecht · Eredivisie | 6-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 31 | 0 | 1 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 19 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
FC Porto
No absences reported.
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Lammers (out)
- A. Nagalo (out)
- S. Ouaissa (out)
- A. Plea (out)
- J. Schouten (out)
- K. Sildillia (out)
Most regular starters
FC Porto
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Kiwior5/5
- P. Rosario5/5
- A. Costa4/5
- Andre Silva4/5
- D. Costa4/5
- G. Veiga4/5
- J. Bednarek4/5
- Pepê4/5
- William Gomes4/5
- F. Moura2/5
- V. Froholdt2/5
PSV Eindhoven
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Obispo5/5
- G. Til5/5
- K. Sano5/5
- S. Dest5/5
- L. Geertruida4/5
- R. Pepi4/5
- R. van Bommel4/5
- M. Kovar3/5
- Mauro Junior3/5
- P. Wanner3/5
- I. Perisic2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction?
Our AI gives FC Porto a 21% chance of winning, the draw 18% and PSV Eindhoven 61%. PSV Eindhoven are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
1-2 (8.4%), followed by 1-3 (7.3%), 1-1 (6.5%), 2-2 (6.3%) and 0-2 (5.7%).
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
The probability that both FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven score is 72%. FC Porto have a 8% chance of keeping a clean sheet, PSV Eindhoven 23%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model expects 4.08 goals (1.49 for FC Porto, 2.59 for PSV Eindhoven). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.
When and where is FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven played?
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League.
What form are FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven in?
FC Porto: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded). PSV Eindhoven: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.49 for FC Porto, 2.59 for PSV Eindhoven) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Porto predictions
- All PSV Eindhoven predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology