UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt: 4-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Napoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Napoli at 57%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.
Match analysis
Napoli and Bodo/Glimt met on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Maradona Stadium, Naples. Before kick-off, our model gave Napoli a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bodo/Glimt 22%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (9.8%), followed by 1-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (8.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Napoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Bodo/Glimt have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Bodo/Glimt therefore arrive in far better shape than Napoli. On average Napoli score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Bodo/Glimt score 2.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Napoli sit 32nd with 0 points from 2 games, Bodo/Glimt 24th with 3 points from 2. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Napoli have averaged 1.95 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.20 for Bodo/Glimt.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Napoli and Bodo/Glimt: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Napoli out or doubtful: A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli and A. Vergara. Bodo/Glimt: H. Evjen, A. Mikkelsen, M. Riisnaes and I. Sjong. In double chance terms, "Napoli or draw" stands at 78%, "Bodo/Glimt or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Napoli are favourites for this Napoli v Bodo/Glimt, with a 57% win probability from our model. On recent form, Napoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Bodo/Glimt are in good shape (4 wins in 5). One to watch: Napoli will be without A. Buongiorno and David Neres.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Napoli – Bodo/Glimt. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Napoli 2-1 Bodo/Glimt | 9.8% |
| Napoli 1-1 Bodo/Glimt | 9.8% |
| Napoli 2-0 Bodo/Glimt | 8.5% |
| Napoli 1-0 Bodo/Glimt | 8.4% |
| Napoli 3-1 Bodo/Glimt | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.01 expected goals for Napoli and 1.16 for Bodo/Glimt, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 61% and "both teams to score" at 60%. Goals look likely in this one. Napoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Bodo/Glimt in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Napoli expected goals | 2.01 |
| Bodo/Glimt expected goals | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 31% |
| Bodo/Glimt clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Villarreal · UEFA Champions League | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
Bodo/Glimt
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Ham-Kam · Eliteserien | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kristiansund BK · Eliteserien | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Rana · NM Cupen | 6-2 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Brann · Eliteserien | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 32 | 0 | 2 |
| Bodo/Glimt | 24 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Napoli and Bodo/Glimt: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Napoli
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- David Neres (out)
- C. Favasuli (out)
- A. Vergara (out)
Bodo/Glimt
- H. Evjen (out)
- A. Mikkelsen (out)
- M. Riisnaes (out)
- I. Sjong (out)
Most regular starters
Napoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Di Lorenzo5/5
- A. Rrahmani4/5
- B. Gilmour4/5
- K. De Bruyne4/5
- R. Hojlund4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- S. Lobotka4/5
- B. Badiashile3/5
- L. Spinazzola3/5
- M. Politano3/5
- V. Milinkovic-Savic3/5
Bodo/Glimt
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Berg4/4
- S. Auklend4/4
- J. Hauge3/4
- N. Haikin3/4
- S. Fet3/4
- A. Helmersen2/4
- F. Bjorkan2/4
- F. Sjovold2/4
- F. Sjøvold2/4
- H. Aleesami2/4
- J. Gundersen2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Sabah FA 1-2 Borussia DortmundOct 20, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia PrahaOct 20, 2026
- FC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenOct 20, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridOct 20, 2026
- Liverpool 4-3 VillarrealOct 20, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 4-2 BarcelonaOct 20, 2026
- AS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaOct 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens FCOct 20, 2026
- Como 4-1 Manchester UnitedOct 21, 2026
- Lille 2-4 GalatasarayOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Napoli a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bodo/Glimt 22%. Napoli are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
2-1 (9.8%), followed by 1-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%), 1-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
The probability that both Napoli and Bodo/Glimt score is 60%. Napoli have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bodo/Glimt 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
The model expects 3.17 goals (2.01 for Napoli, 1.16 for Bodo/Glimt). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 39%.
When and where is Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt played?
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Maradona Stadium, Naples.
What form are Napoli and Bodo/Glimt in?
Napoli: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). Bodo/Glimt: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded).
What was the Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Napoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Napoli at 57%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.
How is the Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.01 for Napoli, 1.16 for Bodo/Glimt) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Napoli predictions
- All Bodo/Glimt predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology