UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Liverpool vs Villarreal: 4-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Liverpool was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
Match analysis
Liverpool vs Villarreal was played on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Anfield, Liverpool. Before kick-off, our model gave Liverpool a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villarreal 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.3%), ahead of 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Liverpool have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Liverpool score 2.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Villarreal score 1.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Liverpool sit 5th with 6 points from 2 games, Villarreal 14th with 3 points from 2. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Liverpool have averaged 1.87 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.12 for Villarreal.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Villarreal 2-3 Liverpool (May 3, 2022). Liverpool out or doubtful: C. Bradley, H. Ekitike, R. Gravenberch (suspended), G. Leoni, F. Chiesa, W. Endo, J. Frimpong and D. Szoboszlai. Villarreal: T. Buchanan and N. Pepe. In double chance terms, "Liverpool or draw" stands at 84%, "Villarreal or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Liverpool are favourites for this Liverpool v Villarreal, with a 63% win probability from our model. In the table, Liverpool (5th, 6 pts) host Villarreal (14th, 3 pts). One to watch: Liverpool will be without C. Bradley and H. Ekitike.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Liverpool – Villarreal. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 1-0 Villarreal | 11.3% |
| Liverpool 2-0 Villarreal | 11.2% |
| Liverpool 1-1 Villarreal | 10.0% |
| Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal | 9.9% |
| Liverpool 3-0 Villarreal | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.86 goals in total (1.98 for Liverpool, 0.88 for Villarreal): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 50%. Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Villarreal in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Liverpool expected goals | 1.98 |
| Villarreal expected goals | 0.88 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 42% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Liverpool
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Lask Linz · UEFA Champions League | 6-3 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Tottenham · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Napoli · UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| Villarreal | 14 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2022 | Villarreal 2-3 Liverpool | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Liverpool 2-0 Villarreal | UEFA Champions League |
| May 5, 2016 | Liverpool 3-0 Villarreal | UEFA Europa League |
| Apr 28, 2016 | Villarreal 1-0 Liverpool | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Liverpool
- C. Bradley (out)
- H. Ekitike (out)
- R. Gravenberch (suspended)
- G. Leoni (out)
- F. Chiesa (out)
- W. Endo (out)
- J. Frimpong (out)
- D. Szoboszlai (out)
Villarreal
- T. Buchanan (out)
- N. Pepe (out)
Most regular starters
Liverpool
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Mac Allister4/5
- B. Barcola4/5
- F. Wirtz4/5
- J. Jacquet4/5
- M. Kerkez4/5
- L. Koumas3/5
- R. Araújo3/5
- V. van Dijk3/5
- A. Isak2/5
- Alisson2/5
- Alisson Becker2/5
Villarreal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Freeman4/5
- A. Moleiro4/5
- P. Navarro4/5
- R. Veiga4/5
- A. Perez3/5
- I. Akhomach3/5
- N. Saliba3/5
- P. Gueye3/5
- P. Gulacsi3/5
- S. Cardona3/5
- S. Comesana3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sabah FA 1-2 Borussia DortmundOct 20, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia PrahaOct 20, 2026
- FC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenOct 20, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridOct 20, 2026
- Napoli 4-3 Bodo/GlimtOct 20, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 4-2 BarcelonaOct 20, 2026
- AS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaOct 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens FCOct 20, 2026
- Como 4-1 Manchester UnitedOct 21, 2026
- Lille 2-4 GalatasarayOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Liverpool a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villarreal 16%. Liverpool are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
1-0 (11.3%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The probability that both Liverpool and Villarreal score is 50%. Liverpool have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Villarreal 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The model expects 2.86 goals (1.98 for Liverpool, 0.88 for Villarreal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Liverpool vs Villarreal played?
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Anfield, Liverpool.
What form are Liverpool and Villarreal in?
Liverpool: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 8 conceded). Villarreal: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Villarreal?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Villarreal 2-3 Liverpool (May 3, 2022).
What was the Liverpool vs Villarreal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Liverpool was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
How is the Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.98 for Liverpool, 0.88 for Villarreal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Liverpool predictions
- All Villarreal predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology