UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Liverpool take on Villarreal on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Anfield, Liverpool. With a 74% win probability, Liverpool go in as strong favourites against Villarreal (11%), with the draw rated at 15%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (8.8%), ahead of 2-0 (8.6%) and 3-1 (8.2%).
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 8 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Liverpool. On average Liverpool score 1.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Villarreal score 2.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Liverpool sit 13th with 3 points from 1 games, Villarreal 21st with 0 points from 1. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Liverpool have averaged 1.32 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.16 for Villarreal.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Villarreal 2-3 Liverpool (May 3, 2022). Liverpool out or doubtful: C. Bradley, F. Chiesa, H. Ekitike and G. Leoni. Villarreal: S. Comesana. In double chance terms, "Liverpool or draw" stands at 89%, "Villarreal or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Liverpool are favourites for this Liverpool v Villarreal, with a 74% win probability from our model. In the table, Liverpool (13th, 3 pts) host Villarreal (21st, 0 pts). One to watch: Liverpool will be without C. Bradley and F. Chiesa.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Liverpool – Villarreal. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal | 8.8% |
| Liverpool 2-0 Villarreal | 8.6% |
| Liverpool 3-1 Villarreal | 8.2% |
| Liverpool 3-0 Villarreal | 7.9% |
| Liverpool 1-1 Villarreal | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.81 goals in total (2.78 for Liverpool, 1.03 for Villarreal): over 2.5 goals has a 73% probability and both teams to score 60%. Everything points to an open game. Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Villarreal in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Liverpool expected goals | 2.78 |
| Villarreal expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 36% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Liverpool
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Tottenham · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 13 | 3 | 1 |
| Villarreal | 21 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2022 | Villarreal 2-3 Liverpool | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Liverpool 2-0 Villarreal | UEFA Champions League |
| May 5, 2016 | Liverpool 3-0 Villarreal | UEFA Europa League |
| Apr 28, 2016 | Villarreal 1-0 Liverpool | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Liverpool
- C. Bradley (out)
- F. Chiesa (out)
- H. Ekitike (out)
- G. Leoni (out)
Villarreal
- S. Comesana (out)
Most regular starters
Liverpool
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak4/5
- A. Mac Allister4/5
- D. Szoboszlai4/5
- F. Wirtz4/5
- J. Jacquet4/5
- M. Kerkez4/5
- V. van Dijk4/5
- Alisson3/5
- B. Barcola3/5
- C. Gakpo3/5
- R. Araujo3/5
Villarreal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Saliba4/5
- P. Gueye4/5
- T. Buchanan4/5
- A. Freeman3/5
- R. Veiga3/5
- Alberto Moleiro2/5
- Ayoze Pérez2/5
- G. Mikautadze2/5
- G. Moreno2/5
- Ilias Akhomach2/5
- N. Pepe2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction?
Our AI gives Liverpool a 74% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Villarreal 11%. Liverpool are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
2-1 (8.8%), followed by 2-0 (8.6%), 3-1 (8.2%), 3-0 (7.9%) and 1-1 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The probability that both Liverpool and Villarreal score is 60%. Liverpool have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Villarreal 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The model expects 3.81 goals (2.78 for Liverpool, 1.03 for Villarreal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 73%, over 3.5 goals 53%.
When and where is Liverpool vs Villarreal played?
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Anfield, Liverpool.
What form are Liverpool and Villarreal in?
Liverpool: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded). Villarreal: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Villarreal?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Villarreal 2-3 Liverpool (May 3, 2022).
How is the Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.78 for Liverpool, 1.03 for Villarreal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Liverpool predictions
- All Villarreal predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology