UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid kicks off on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart. With a 90% win probability, VfB Stuttgart go in as strong favourites against Atletico Madrid (3%), with the draw rated at 7%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (8.5%), ahead of 4-0 (8.5%) and 3-1 (7.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Atletico Madrid. On average VfB Stuttgart score 1.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, VfB Stuttgart sit 6th with 3 points from 1 games, Atletico Madrid 26th with 0 points from 1. 20 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, VfB Stuttgart have averaged 2.13 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.58 for Atletico Madrid.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. VfB Stuttgart out or doubtful: L. Assignon, J. Diehl, M. Herwerth, L. Jaquez, D. Seimen, T. Tomas and D. Zagadou. Atletico Madrid: P. Barrios and A. Sorloth. In double chance terms, "VfB Stuttgart or draw" stands at 97%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 10% and "no draw" at 93%.
In short : Our model backs VfB Stuttgart to edge Atletico Madrid (90% probability). In the table, VfB Stuttgart (6th, 3 pts) host Atletico Madrid (26th, 0 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 86%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as VfB Stuttgart – Atletico Madrid. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (8.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Atletico Madrid | 8.5% |
| VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Atletico Madrid | 8.5% |
| VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Atletico Madrid | 7.1% |
| VfB Stuttgart 4-1 Atletico Madrid | 7.1% |
| VfB Stuttgart 5-0 Atletico Madrid | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.83 goals in total (4.00 for VfB Stuttgart, 0.83 for Atletico Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 86% probability and both teams to score 55%. Everything points to an open game. VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart expected goals | 4.00 |
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 0.83 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 44% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
VfB Stuttgart
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Viking · UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 1-5 | L |
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Atletico Madrid | 26 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
VfB Stuttgart
- L. Assignon (out)
- J. Diehl (out)
- M. Herwerth (out)
- L. Jaquez (out)
- D. Seimen (out)
- T. Tomas (out)
- D. Zagadou (out)
Atletico Madrid
- P. Barrios (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
Most regular starters
VfB Stuttgart
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Stiller5/5
- F. Bredlow5/5
- J. Chabot5/5
- D. Undav4/5
- F. Jeltsch4/5
- G. Promel4/5
- J. Vagnoman4/5
- M. Mittelstadt4/5
- B. El Khannouss3/5
- C. Fuhrich3/5
- D. Pejcinovic3/5
Atletico Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Oblak5/5
- Lee Kang-In5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- C. Romero4/5
- D. Hancko4/5
- G. Simeone4/5
- M. Llorente4/5
- A. Grimaldo3/5
- A. Lookman3/5
- M. Pubill3/5
- J. Cardoso2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Our AI gives VfB Stuttgart a 90% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Atletico Madrid 3%. VfB Stuttgart are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
3-0 (8.5%), followed by 4-0 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.1%), 4-1 (7.1%) and 5-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
The probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid score is 55%. VfB Stuttgart have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 2%.
How many goals should we expect in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 4.83 goals (4.00 for VfB Stuttgart, 0.83 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.
When and where is VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid played?
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid in?
VfB Stuttgart: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for VfB Stuttgart, 0.83 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All VfB Stuttgart predictions
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
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