UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for VfB Stuttgart (74%), while a draw was rated at only 14%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (71%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): missed.
Match analysis
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid was played on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: MHP Arena, Stuttgart. Before kick-off, our model gave VfB Stuttgart a 74% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Atletico Madrid 12%. The most likely correct score is 3-1 (7.8%), ahead of 2-1 (7.4%) and 4-1 (6.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 1. Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Atletico Madrid. On average VfB Stuttgart score 2.60 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 2.20 and concede 0.40. In the table, VfB Stuttgart sit 4th with 6 points from 2 games, Atletico Madrid 15th with 3 points from 2. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, VfB Stuttgart have averaged 2.32 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.83 for Atletico Madrid.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. VfB Stuttgart out or doubtful: A. Al Dakhil, J. Diehl, M. Mittelstadt, N. Nartey, T. Tomas, D. Zagadou, S. Drljaca and L. Stergiou. Atletico Madrid: J. Cardoso, Koke and C. Romero. In double chance terms, "VfB Stuttgart or draw" stands at 88%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Our model backs VfB Stuttgart to edge Atletico Madrid (74% probability). In the table, VfB Stuttgart (4th, 6 pts) host Atletico Madrid (15th, 3 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 83%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as VfB Stuttgart – Atletico Madrid. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Atletico Madrid | 7.8% |
| VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Atletico Madrid | 7.4% |
| VfB Stuttgart 4-1 Atletico Madrid | 6.2% |
| VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Atletico Madrid | 5.9% |
| VfB Stuttgart 2-0 Atletico Madrid | 5.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.52 goals in total (3.19 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.33 for Atletico Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 83% probability and both teams to score 71%. Everything points to an open game. VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart expected goals | 3.19 |
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66% |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 26% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
VfB Stuttgart
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Club Friendlies | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 1. FC Heidenheim · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Atletico Madrid | 15 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
VfB Stuttgart
- A. Al Dakhil (out)
- J. Diehl (out)
- M. Mittelstadt (out)
- N. Nartey (out)
- T. Tomas (out)
- D. Zagadou (out)
- S. Drljaca (out)
- L. Stergiou (out)
Atletico Madrid
- J. Cardoso (out)
- Koke (out)
- C. Romero (out)
Most regular starters
VfB Stuttgart
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Stiller5/5
- D. Undav5/5
- R. Hendriks5/5
- A. Karazor4/5
- J. Chabot4/5
- J. Leweling4/5
- D. Seimen3/5
- J. Vagnoman3/5
- B. El Khannouss2/5
- C. Fuhrich2/5
- F. Bredlow2/5
Atletico Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Romero5/5
- J. Oblak5/5
- A. Grimaldo4/5
- G. Simeone4/5
- J. Cardoso4/5
- J. David4/5
- Lee Kang-In4/5
- M. Llorente4/5
- A. Baena3/5
- A. Lookman3/5
- D. Hancko3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sabah FA 1-2 Borussia DortmundOct 20, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia PrahaOct 20, 2026
- FC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenOct 20, 2026
- Liverpool 4-3 VillarrealOct 20, 2026
- Napoli 4-3 Bodo/GlimtOct 20, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 4-2 BarcelonaOct 20, 2026
- AS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaOct 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens FCOct 20, 2026
- Como 4-1 Manchester UnitedOct 21, 2026
- Lille 2-4 GalatasarayOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave VfB Stuttgart a 74% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Atletico Madrid 12%. VfB Stuttgart are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
3-1 (7.8%), followed by 2-1 (7.4%), 4-1 (6.2%), 3-0 (5.9%) and 2-0 (5.5%).
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
The probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid score is 71%. VfB Stuttgart have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 4%.
How many goals should we expect in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 4.52 goals (3.19 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.33 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 66%.
When and where is VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid played?
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: MHP Arena, Stuttgart.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid in?
VfB Stuttgart: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 1 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 2 conceded).
What was the VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for VfB Stuttgart (74%), while a draw was rated at only 14%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (71%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): missed.
How is the VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.19 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.33 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All VfB Stuttgart predictions
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology