UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Lille vs Galatasaray: 2-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lille 2-4 Galatasaray. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lille (44%), while victory for Galatasaray was rated at only 31%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Lille and Galatasaray met on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Before kick-off, our model gave Lille a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Galatasaray 31%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Galatasaray have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Lille score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Galatasaray score 1.60 and concede 2.40. In the table, Lille sit 34th with 0 points from 2 games, Galatasaray 35th with 0 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lille have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.46 for Galatasaray.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lille and Galatasaray: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Lille out or doubtful: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda, E. Mbappe (suspended) and O. Sahraoui (doubtful). Galatasaray: E. Aydin, K. Ayhan, A. Guner, K. Karatas, R. Leao, A. Unyay, A. Yilmaz and W. Singo. In double chance terms, "Lille or draw" stands at 69%, "Galatasaray or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Lille are tipped by our AI model in this Lille v Galatasaray (44%). On recent form, Lille have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Galatasaray have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lille – Galatasaray. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lille 1-1 Galatasaray | 12.2% |
| Lille 1-0 Galatasaray | 10.1% |
| Lille 2-1 Galatasaray | 9.0% |
| Lille 0-1 Galatasaray | 8.2% |
| Lille 2-0 Galatasaray | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.48 expected goals for Lille and 1.20 for Galatasaray, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Lille keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Galatasaray in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lille expected goals | 1.48 |
| Galatasaray expected goals | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Lille clean sheet | 30% |
| Galatasaray clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Zulte Waregem · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
Galatasaray
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. · Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Barcelona · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Pendikspor · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Trabzonspor · Süper Lig | 0-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 34 | 0 | 2 |
| Galatasaray | 35 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lille and Galatasaray: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
- T. Santos (out)
- A. Ueda (out)
- E. Mbappe (suspended)
- O. Sahraoui (doubtful)
Galatasaray
- E. Aydin (out)
- K. Ayhan (out)
- A. Guner (out)
- K. Karatas (out)
- R. Leao (out)
- A. Unyay (out)
- A. Yilmaz (out)
- W. Singo (out)
Most regular starters
Lille
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Perraud4/4
- Alexsandro3/4
- B. Ozer3/4
- D. Bakwa3/4
- H. Haraldsson3/4
- N. Bentaleb3/4
- N. Mukau3/4
- N. Ngoy3/4
- A. Ueda2/4
- B. Andre2/4
- O. Giroud2/4
Galatasaray
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gabriel Sara4/5
- D. Sanchez3/5
- I. Jakobs3/5
- L. Torreira3/5
- R. Leao3/5
- U. Cakir3/5
- Y. Akgun3/5
- A. Bardakci2/5
- A. Batrakov2/5
- B. Yilmaz2/5
- D. Gul2/5
Other matches in this competition
- FC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenOct 20, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridOct 20, 2026
- Como 4-1 Manchester UnitedOct 21, 2026
- Bayern München 2-2 ArsenalOct 21, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 FeyenoordOct 21, 2026
- Aston Villa 3-1 VikingOct 21, 2026
- Real Madrid 4-1 RB LeipzigOct 21, 2026
- Club Brugge KV 3-0 LensOct 21, 2026
- Inter 1-0 Shakhtar DonetskOct 21, 2026
- Sporting CP 2-3 Lask LinzOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lille vs Galatasaray prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lille a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Galatasaray 31%. Lille are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Lille vs Galatasaray?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Lille vs Galatasaray?
The probability that both Lille and Galatasaray score is 54%. Lille have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Galatasaray 23%.
How many goals should we expect in Lille vs Galatasaray?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.48 for Lille, 1.20 for Galatasaray). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Lille vs Galatasaray played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille.
What form are Lille and Galatasaray in?
Lille: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Galatasaray: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 12 conceded).
What was the Lille vs Galatasaray result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lille 2-4 Galatasaray. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lille (44%), while victory for Galatasaray was rated at only 31%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Lille vs Galatasaray prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.48 for Lille, 1.20 for Galatasaray) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lille predictions
- All Galatasaray predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology