UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Real Madrid take on RB Leipzig on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. With a 84% win probability, Real Madrid go in as strong favourites against RB Leipzig (7%), with the draw rated at 9%. The most likely correct score is 3-1 (6.9%), ahead of 4-1 (6.9%) and 5-1 (5.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Real Madrid. On average Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; RB Leipzig score 2.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Real Madrid sit 14th with 3 points from 1 games, RB Leipzig 32nd with 0 points from 1. 18 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Real Madrid have averaged 2.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.63 for RB Leipzig.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Real Madrid, 1 for RB Leipzig and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Madrid 1-1 RB Leipzig (Mar 6, 2024). Real Madrid out or doubtful: Eder Militao, F. Mendy and Rodrygo. RB Leipzig: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo and R. Reitz. In double chance terms, "Real Madrid or draw" stands at 93%, "RB Leipzig or draw" at 16% and "no draw" at 91%.
In short : Real Madrid are tipped by our AI model in this Real Madrid v RB Leipzig (84%). In the table, Real Madrid (14th, 3 pts) host RB Leipzig (32nd, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Real Madrid – RB Leipzig. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (6.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 30% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig | 6.9% |
| Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig | 6.9% |
| Real Madrid 5-1 RB Leipzig | 5.5% |
| Real Madrid 3-0 RB Leipzig | 5.3% |
| Real Madrid 4-0 RB Leipzig | 5.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 5.30 goals in total (4.00 for Real Madrid, 1.30 for RB Leipzig): over 2.5 goals has a 90% probability and both teams to score 71%. Everything points to an open game. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 27% of scenarios, RB Leipzig in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid expected goals | 4.00 |
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 78% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 27% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 14 | 3 | 1 |
| RB Leipzig | 32 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2024 | Real Madrid 1-1 RB Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 13, 2024 | RB Leipzig 0-1 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 25, 2022 | RB Leipzig 3-2 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 14, 2022 | Real Madrid 2-0 RB Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Real Madrid
- Eder Militao (out)
- F. Mendy (out)
- Rodrygo (out)
RB Leipzig
- C. Baumgartner (out)
- M. Guiu (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- R. Reitz (out)
Most regular starters
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Valverde5/5
- T. Courtois5/5
- D. Dumfries4/5
- D. Huijsen4/5
- I. Konate4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- Vinicius Junior4/5
- M. Cucurella3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- T. Alexander-Arnold2/5
RB Leipzig
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Nusa5/5
- D. Raum5/5
- M. Vandevoordt5/5
- E. Banzuzi4/5
- N. El Aynaoui4/5
- R. Baku4/5
- B. Gruda3/5
- C. Lukeba3/5
- C. Nkunku3/5
- N. Seiwald3/5
- W. Orban3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction?
Our AI gives Real Madrid a 84% chance of winning, the draw 9% and RB Leipzig 7%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
3-1 (6.9%), followed by 4-1 (6.9%), 5-1 (5.5%), 3-0 (5.3%) and 4-0 (5.3%).
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The probability that both Real Madrid and RB Leipzig score is 71%. Real Madrid have a 27% chance of keeping a clean sheet, RB Leipzig 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 5.30 goals (4.00 for Real Madrid, 1.30 for RB Leipzig). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 90%, over 3.5 goals 78%.
When and where is Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League.
What form are Real Madrid and RB Leipzig in?
Real Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). RB Leipzig: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and RB Leipzig?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Real Madrid, 1 for RB Leipzig and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Madrid 1-1 RB Leipzig (Mar 6, 2024).
How is the Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Real Madrid, 1.30 for RB Leipzig) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Real Madrid predictions
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology