UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Sporting CP vs Lask Linz: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sporting CP 2-3 Lask Linz. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sporting CP (79%), while victory for Lask Linz was rated at only 8%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): correct.
Match analysis
Sporting CP vs Lask Linz was played on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon. Before kick-off, our model gave Sporting CP a 79% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Lask Linz 8%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (10.2%), ahead of 3-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (8.5%).
Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Lask Linz have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Recent momentum is clearly with Sporting CP. On average Sporting CP score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Lask Linz score 2.40 and concede 2.40. In the table, Sporting CP sit 7th with 6 points from 2 games, Lask Linz 32nd with 0 points from 2. 25 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Sporting CP have averaged 1.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.08 for Lask Linz.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sporting CP, 2 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sporting CP 1-4 Lask Linz (Oct 1, 2020). Sporting CP out or doubtful: Z. Debast, N. Santos and R. Zalazar. Lask Linz: K. Cheikne, R. Harakate, A. Smakaj, G. Bello (doubtful) and M. Usor (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Sporting CP or draw" stands at 92%, "Lask Linz or draw" at 21% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Sporting CP are favourites for this Sporting CP v Lask Linz, with a 79% win probability from our model. In the table, Sporting CP (7th, 6 pts) host Lask Linz (32nd, 0 pts). One to watch: Lask Linz will be without K. Cheikne and R. Harakate.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sporting CP – Lask Linz. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sporting CP 2-0 Lask Linz | 10.2% |
| Sporting CP 3-0 Lask Linz | 9.7% |
| Sporting CP 2-1 Lask Linz | 8.5% |
| Sporting CP 3-1 Lask Linz | 8.1% |
| Sporting CP 1-0 Lask Linz | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.69 goals in total (2.86 for Sporting CP, 0.83 for Lask Linz): over 2.5 goals has a 71% probability and both teams to score 53%. Everything points to an open game. Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Lask Linz in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sporting CP expected goals | 2.86 |
| Lask Linz expected goals | 0.83 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% |
| Sporting CP clean sheet | 44% |
| Lask Linz clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sporting CP
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lens · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SC Braga · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray · UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
Lask Linz
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Austria Lustenau · Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 3-6 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rapid Vienna · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 2, 2026 | First Vienna · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | TSV Hartberg · Bundesliga | 3-3 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| Lask Linz | 32 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2020 | Sporting CP 1-4 Lask Linz | UEFA Europa League |
| Dec 12, 2019 | Lask Linz 3-0 Sporting CP | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 3, 2019 | Sporting CP 2-1 Lask Linz | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Sporting CP
- Z. Debast (out)
- N. Santos (out)
- R. Zalazar (out)
Lask Linz
- K. Cheikne (out)
- R. Harakate (out)
- A. Smakaj (out)
- G. Bello (doubtful)
- M. Usor (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Sporting CP
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Doumbia5/5
- G. Catamo4/5
- G. Inacio4/5
- R. Silva4/5
- S. Altimira4/5
- I. Fresneda3/5
- L. Suarez3/5
- M. Araujo3/5
- N. Irankunda3/5
- E. Quaresma2/5
- G. Vagiannidis2/5
Lask Linz
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Jungwirth4/5
- M. Bogarde4/5
- A. Andrade3/5
- C. Lang3/5
- F. Flecker3/5
- J. Tornich3/5
- R. Ljubicic3/5
- S. Horvath3/5
- X. Mbuyamba3/5
- Y. Dibango3/5
- Alemão2/5
Other matches in this competition
- FC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenOct 20, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridOct 20, 2026
- Como 4-1 Manchester UnitedOct 21, 2026
- Lille 2-4 GalatasarayOct 21, 2026
- Bayern München 2-2 ArsenalOct 21, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 FeyenoordOct 21, 2026
- Aston Villa 3-1 VikingOct 21, 2026
- Real Madrid 4-1 RB LeipzigOct 21, 2026
- Club Brugge KV 3-0 LensOct 21, 2026
- Inter 1-0 Shakhtar DonetskOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sporting CP vs Lask Linz prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sporting CP a 79% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Lask Linz 8%. Sporting CP are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Sporting CP vs Lask Linz?
2-0 (10.2%), followed by 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (8.1%) and 1-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Lask Linz?
The probability that both Sporting CP and Lask Linz score is 53%. Sporting CP have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lask Linz 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Sporting CP vs Lask Linz?
The model expects 3.69 goals (2.86 for Sporting CP, 0.83 for Lask Linz). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 71%, over 3.5 goals 50%.
When and where is Sporting CP vs Lask Linz played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon.
What form are Sporting CP and Lask Linz in?
Sporting CP: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). Lask Linz: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Lask Linz?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sporting CP, 2 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sporting CP 1-4 Lask Linz (Oct 1, 2020).
What was the Sporting CP vs Lask Linz result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sporting CP 2-3 Lask Linz. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sporting CP (79%), while victory for Lask Linz was rated at only 8%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): correct.
How is the Sporting CP vs Lask Linz prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.86 for Sporting CP, 0.83 for Lask Linz) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sporting CP predictions
- All Lask Linz predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology