UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Bayern München vs Arsenal kicks off on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich. Bayern München start as favourites with a 57% chance of victory; Arsenal are given 25% and the draw 18%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (7.3%), followed by 2-2 (6.6%) and 3-1 (6.5%).
Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 18 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bayern München score 3.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Arsenal score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Bayern München sit 2nd with 3 points from 1 games, Arsenal 15th with 3 points from 1. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bayern München have averaged 2.38 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.05 for Arsenal.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bayern München, 2 for Arsenal and 2 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 3-1 Bayern München (Nov 26, 2025). Bayern München out or doubtful: T. Buchmann. Arsenal: C. Mosquera, W. Saliba and B. White. In double chance terms, "Bayern München or draw" stands at 75%, "Arsenal or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Bayern München are favourites for this Bayern München v Arsenal, with a 57% win probability from our model. On recent form, Bayern München are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Arsenal are in good shape (4 wins in 5). One to watch: Arsenal will be without C. Mosquera and W. Saliba.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bayern München – Arsenal. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bayern München 2-1 Arsenal | 7.3% |
| Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal | 6.6% |
| Bayern München 3-1 Arsenal | 6.5% |
| Bayern München 3-2 Arsenal | 5.9% |
| Bayern München 1-1 Arsenal | 5.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.69 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.81 for Arsenal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 83% and "both teams to score" at 78%. Goals look likely in this one. Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Arsenal in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bayern München expected goals | 2.69 |
| Arsenal expected goals | 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 16% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | VfL Osnabrück · DFB-Pokal | 4-1 | W |
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich · EFL Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Napoli · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Arsenal | 15 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | Arsenal 3-1 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Bayern München 1-0 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Arsenal 2-2 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 18, 2019 | Arsenal 2-1 Bayern München | International Champions Cup |
| Jul 19, 2017 | Bayern München 1-1 Arsenal | International Champions Cup |
Out and doubtful
Bayern München
- T. Buchmann (out)
Arsenal
- C. Mosquera (out)
- W. Saliba (out)
- B. White (out)
Most regular starters
Bayern München
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Upamecano4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- J. Kimmich4/5
- J. Tah4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- A. Davies3/5
- I. Saibari3/5
- M. Neuer3/5
- N. Brown3/5
- A. Pavlovic2/5
- A. Pavlović2/5
Arsenal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Saka4/5
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Konsa4/5
- B. White3/5
- C. Tzolis3/5
- D. Raya3/5
- Gabriel3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- M. Lewis-Skelly3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- R. Calafiori3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction?
Our AI gives Bayern München a 57% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Arsenal 25%. Bayern München are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Bayern München vs Arsenal?
2-1 (7.3%), followed by 2-2 (6.6%), 3-1 (6.5%), 3-2 (5.9%) and 1-1 (5.4%).
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Arsenal?
The probability that both Bayern München and Arsenal score is 78%. Bayern München have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Arsenal 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Bayern München vs Arsenal?
The model expects 4.50 goals (2.69 for Bayern München, 1.81 for Arsenal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 66%.
When and where is Bayern München vs Arsenal played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich.
What form are Bayern München and Arsenal in?
Bayern München: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 2 conceded). Arsenal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Arsenal?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bayern München, 2 for Arsenal and 2 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 3-1 Bayern München (Nov 26, 2025).
How is the Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.69 for Bayern München, 1.81 for Arsenal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bayern München predictions
- All Arsenal predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology