UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Bayern München vs Arsenal: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bayern München (43%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
Match analysis
Bayern München and Arsenal met on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich. Before kick-off, our model gave Bayern München a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arsenal 31%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (9.0%).
Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 20 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bayern München score 4.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Arsenal score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Bayern München sit 12th with 4 points from 2 games, Arsenal 8th with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bayern München have averaged 3.68 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.73 for Arsenal.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bayern München, 2 for Arsenal and 2 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 3-1 Bayern München (Nov 26, 2025). Bayern München out or doubtful: T. Buchmann, J. Musiala, M. Neuer, J. Kimmich and M. Olise (suspended). Arsenal: P. Hincapie, W. Saliba and C. Tzolis. In double chance terms, "Bayern München or draw" stands at 69%, "Arsenal or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Bayern München are favourites for this Bayern München v Arsenal, with a 43% win probability from our model. On recent form, Bayern München have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Arsenal are in good shape (4 wins in 5). One to watch: Bayern München will be without T. Buchmann and J. Musiala.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bayern München – Arsenal. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bayern München 1-1 Arsenal | 12.0% |
| Bayern München 1-0 Arsenal | 9.7% |
| Bayern München 2-1 Arsenal | 9.0% |
| Bayern München 0-1 Arsenal | 8.0% |
| Bayern München 1-2 Arsenal | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.50 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.24 for Arsenal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 52% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 29% of scenarios, Arsenal in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bayern München expected goals | 1.50 |
| Arsenal expected goals | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 29% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 6-1 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Viking · UEFA Champions League | 3-3 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lille · UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich · EFL Cup | 4-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 12 | 4 | 2 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 6 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | Arsenal 3-1 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Bayern München 1-0 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Arsenal 2-2 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 18, 2019 | Arsenal 2-1 Bayern München | International Champions Cup |
| Jul 19, 2017 | Bayern München 1-1 Arsenal | International Champions Cup |
Out and doubtful
Bayern München
- T. Buchmann (out)
- J. Musiala (out)
- M. Neuer (out)
- J. Kimmich (out)
- M. Olise (suspended)
Arsenal
- P. Hincapie (out)
- W. Saliba (out)
- C. Tzolis (out)
Most regular starters
Bayern München
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Kane5/5
- M. Olise5/5
- D. Upamecano4/5
- J. Kimmich4/5
- A. Pavlovic3/5
- I. Saibari3/5
- J. Stanisic3/5
- J. Tah3/5
- J. Urbig3/5
- Kim Min-Jae3/5
- L. Diaz3/5
Arsenal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Konsa4/5
- B. Saka3/5
- D. Raya3/5
- E. Eze3/5
- Gabriel3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- M. Lewis-Skelly3/5
- N. Madueke3/5
- R. Calafiori3/5
- B. White2/5
Other matches in this competition
- FC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenOct 20, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridOct 20, 2026
- Como 4-1 Manchester UnitedOct 21, 2026
- Lille 2-4 GalatasarayOct 21, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 FeyenoordOct 21, 2026
- Aston Villa 3-1 VikingOct 21, 2026
- Real Madrid 4-1 RB LeipzigOct 21, 2026
- Club Brugge KV 3-0 LensOct 21, 2026
- Inter 1-0 Shakhtar DonetskOct 21, 2026
- Sporting CP 2-3 Lask LinzOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bayern München a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arsenal 31%. Bayern München are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Bayern München vs Arsenal?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%) and 1-2 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Arsenal?
The probability that both Bayern München and Arsenal score is 55%. Bayern München have a 29% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Arsenal 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Bayern München vs Arsenal?
The model expects 2.74 goals (1.50 for Bayern München, 1.24 for Arsenal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Bayern München vs Arsenal played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich.
What form are Bayern München and Arsenal in?
Bayern München: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (20 scored, 7 conceded). Arsenal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Arsenal?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bayern München, 2 for Arsenal and 2 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 3-1 Bayern München (Nov 26, 2025).
What was the Bayern München vs Arsenal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bayern München (43%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
How is the Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Bayern München, 1.24 for Arsenal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bayern München predictions
- All Arsenal predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology