UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Inter 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Inter was the model's favourite outcome (81%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): missed.
Match analysis
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk was played on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Before kick-off, our model gave Inter a 81% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Shakhtar Donetsk 7%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (10.4%), ahead of 3-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (8.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Inter have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Shakhtar Donetsk. On average Inter score 2.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.80 and concede 0.40. In the table, Inter sit 31st with 0 points from 2 games, Shakhtar Donetsk 14th with 4 points from 2. 17 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Inter have averaged 3.19 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.40 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Inter, 0 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 3 draws. The most recent ended Inter 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk (Nov 24, 2021). Inter out or doubtful: C. Jones, L. Martinez, B. Pavard and J. Stones. Shakhtar Donetsk: I. Azarovi, Eguinaldo, K. Fesyun, A. Ghram, V. Korniyenko, Marlon, P. Obah and T. Puzankov. In double chance terms, "Inter or draw" stands at 93%, "Shakhtar Donetsk or draw" at 19% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Inter are tipped by our AI model in this Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk (81%). On recent form, Inter have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Shakhtar Donetsk are in good shape (5 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Inter 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | 10.4% |
| Inter 3-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | 10.3% |
| Inter 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk | 8.1% |
| Inter 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk | 8.0% |
| Inter 4-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.73 goals in total (2.95 for Inter, 0.78 for Shakhtar Donetsk): over 2.5 goals has a 72% probability and both teams to score 51%. Everything points to an open game. Inter keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Shakhtar Donetsk in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Inter expected goals | 2.95 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals | 0.78 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% |
| Inter clean sheet | 46% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Inter
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League | 3-4 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lumezzane · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
Shakhtar Donetsk
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 14, 2026 | AEK Athens FC · UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Veres Rivne · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Kryvbas KR · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 31 | 0 | 2 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 14 | 4 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2021 | Inter 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 28, 2021 | Shakhtar Donetsk 0-0 Inter | UEFA Champions League |
| Dec 9, 2020 | Inter 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 27, 2020 | Shakhtar Donetsk 0-0 Inter | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 17, 2020 | Inter 5-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Inter
- C. Jones (out)
- L. Martinez (out)
- B. Pavard (out)
- J. Stones (out)
Shakhtar Donetsk
- I. Azarovi (out)
- Eguinaldo (out)
- K. Fesyun (out)
- A. Ghram (out)
- V. Korniyenko (out)
- Marlon (out)
- P. Obah (out)
- T. Puzankov (out)
Most regular starters
Inter
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Dimarco5/5
- M. Thuram5/5
- Y. Bisseck5/5
- A. Bastoni3/5
- A. Diouf3/5
- J. Martinez3/5
- M. Akanji3/5
- N. Barella3/5
- B. Pavard2/5
- C. Jones2/5
- Carlos Augusto2/5
Shakhtar Donetsk
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Riznyk4/5
- Marlon Gomes4/5
- Pedrinho4/5
- V. Bondar4/5
- Alisson3/5
- D. Kryskiv3/5
- M. Matvienko3/5
- O. Karavaev3/5
- A. Matturro2/5
- Kaua Elias2/5
- Newerton2/5
Other matches in this competition
- FC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenOct 20, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridOct 20, 2026
- Como 4-1 Manchester UnitedOct 21, 2026
- Lille 2-4 GalatasarayOct 21, 2026
- Bayern München 2-2 ArsenalOct 21, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 FeyenoordOct 21, 2026
- Aston Villa 3-1 VikingOct 21, 2026
- Real Madrid 4-1 RB LeipzigOct 21, 2026
- Club Brugge KV 3-0 LensOct 21, 2026
- Sporting CP 2-3 Lask LinzOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Inter a 81% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Shakhtar Donetsk 7%. Inter are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
2-0 (10.4%), followed by 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (8.0%) and 4-0 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The probability that both Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk score is 51%. Inter have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Shakhtar Donetsk 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The model expects 3.73 goals (2.95 for Inter, 0.78 for Shakhtar Donetsk). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 72%, over 3.5 goals 51%.
When and where is Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan.
What form are Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Inter: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 7 conceded). Shakhtar Donetsk: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Inter, 0 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 3 draws. The most recent ended Inter 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk (Nov 24, 2021).
What was the Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Inter 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Inter was the model's favourite outcome (81%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): missed.
How is the Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.95 for Inter, 0.78 for Shakhtar Donetsk) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Inter predictions
- All Shakhtar Donetsk predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology