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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Thursday, September 10, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)

Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

FenerbahçeFenerbahçe1 – 1AS RomaAS Roma

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AS Roma (46%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (75%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): missed.

Match analysis

Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma was played on Thursday, September 10, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Chobani Stadium, Istanbul. Before kick-off, our model gave Fenerbahçe a 27% chance of winning, the draw 27% and AS Roma 46%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (7.4%), ahead of 1-3 (7.3%) and 2-2 (5.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Fenerbahçe have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, AS Roma have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Fenerbahçe score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; AS Roma score 2.40 and concede 1.20. Over their recent games, Fenerbahçe have averaged 1.50 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.13 for AS Roma.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Fenerbahçe and AS Roma: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Fenerbahçe out or doubtful: M. Asensio, A. Diouf, A. Fall, M. Guendouzi and J. Oosterwolde. AS Roma: M. Bah and L. Pellegrini. In double chance terms, "Fenerbahçe or draw" stands at 55%, "AS Roma or draw" at 73% and "no draw" at 73%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

27%
Fenerbahçe (Win)
27%
Draw
46%
AS Roma (Win)

Double chance

55%
Fenerbahçe or draw
73%
AS Roma or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Fenerbahçe – AS Roma. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Fenerbahçe 1-2 AS Roma7.4%
Fenerbahçe 1-3 AS Roma7.3%
Fenerbahçe 2-2 AS Roma5.9%
Fenerbahçe 2-3 AS Roma5.8%
Fenerbahçe 1-4 AS Roma5.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.54 goals in total (1.59 for Fenerbahçe, 2.95 for AS Roma): over 2.5 goals has a 83% probability and both teams to score 75%. Everything points to an open game. Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, AS Roma in 20%.

Probability
Fenerbahçe expected goals1.59
AS Roma expected goals2.95
Both teams to score75%
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals83%
Over 3.5 goals66%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet5%
AS Roma clean sheet20%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Fenerbahçe

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026Beşiktaş · Süper Lig1-2L
Aug 30, 2026Samsunspor · Süper Lig2-0W
Aug 26, 2026Lyon · UEFA Champions League2-1W
Aug 22, 2026Konyaspor · Süper Lig4-2W
Aug 18, 2026Lyon · UEFA Champions League1-1D

AS Roma

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026Atalanta · Serie A2-1W
Aug 31, 2026Lecce · Serie A4-0W
Aug 24, 2026Fiorentina · Serie A4-0W
Aug 15, 2026Borussia Dortmund · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 8, 2026Brighton · Club Friendlies0-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Fenerbahçe2000
AS Roma1700

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Fenerbahçe and AS Roma: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Fenerbahçe

  • M. Asensio (out)
  • A. Diouf (out)
  • A. Fall (out)
  • M. Guendouzi (out)
  • J. Oosterwolde (out)

AS Roma

  • M. Bah (out)
  • L. Pellegrini (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Fenerbahçe a 27% chance of winning, the draw 27% and AS Roma 46%. AS Roma are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?

1-2 (7.4%), followed by 1-3 (7.3%), 2-2 (5.9%), 2-3 (5.8%) and 1-4 (5.4%).

Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?

The probability that both Fenerbahçe and AS Roma score is 75%. Fenerbahçe have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AS Roma 20%.

How many goals should we expect in Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?

The model expects 4.54 goals (1.59 for Fenerbahçe, 2.95 for AS Roma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 66%.

When and where is Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma played?

Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Chobani Stadium, Istanbul.

What form are Fenerbahçe and AS Roma in?

Fenerbahçe: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). AS Roma: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded).

What was the Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AS Roma (46%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (75%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): missed.

How is the Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.59 for Fenerbahçe, 2.95 for AS Roma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained