Skip to content
Elofoot

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Thursday, September 10, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)

PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1 – 1Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for PSV Eindhoven (66%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): missed.

Match analysis

PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk was played on Thursday, September 10, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. Before kick-off, our model gave PSV Eindhoven a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Shakhtar Donetsk 15%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (8.8%), ahead of 4-0 (8.8%) and 3-1 (7.0%).

PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 18 and conceding 6. Shakhtar Donetsk have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with PSV Eindhoven. On average PSV Eindhoven score 3.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.60 and concede 1.80.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws. PSV Eindhoven out or doubtful: M. Bro Hansen, D. Man, S. Ouaissa, A. Plea and J. Schouten. Shakhtar Donetsk: K. Fesyun, V. Korniyenko, Marlon, P. Obah and Pedrinho. In double chance terms, "PSV Eindhoven or draw" stands at 85%, "Shakhtar Donetsk or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 81%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

66%
PSV Eindhoven (Win)
19%
Draw
15%
Shakhtar Donetsk (Win)

Double chance

85%
PSV Eindhoven or draw
34%
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw
81%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as PSV Eindhoven – Shakhtar Donetsk. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (8.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Shakhtar Donetsk8.8%
PSV Eindhoven 4-0 Shakhtar Donetsk8.8%
PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk7.0%
PSV Eindhoven 5-0 Shakhtar Donetsk7.0%
PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Shakhtar Donetsk7.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.80 goals in total (4.00 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.80 for Shakhtar Donetsk): over 2.5 goals has a 86% probability and both teams to score 54%. Everything points to an open game. PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Shakhtar Donetsk in 2%.

Probability
PSV Eindhoven expected goals4.00
Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals0.80
Both teams to score54%
Over 1.5 goals95%
Over 2.5 goals86%
Over 3.5 goals71%
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet45%
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet2%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

PSV Eindhoven

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026Ajax · Eredivisie3-1W
Aug 30, 2026Utrecht · Eredivisie6-1W
Aug 23, 2026Groningen · Eredivisie5-1W
Aug 15, 2026Excelsior · Eredivisie2-1W
Aug 8, 2026Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie2-2D

Shakhtar Donetsk

DateOpponentScore
May 7, 2026Crystal Palace · UEFA Conference League1-2L
Apr 30, 2026Crystal Palace · UEFA Conference League1-3L
Apr 16, 2026AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Conference League2-2D
Apr 9, 2026AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Conference League3-0W
Mar 19, 2026Lech Poznan · UEFA Conference League1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
PSV Eindhoven1800
Shakhtar Donetsk2100

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

PSV Eindhoven

  • M. Bro Hansen (out)
  • D. Man (out)
  • S. Ouaissa (out)
  • A. Plea (out)
  • J. Schouten (out)

Shakhtar Donetsk

  • K. Fesyun (out)
  • V. Korniyenko (out)
  • Marlon (out)
  • P. Obah (out)
  • Pedrinho (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave PSV Eindhoven a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Shakhtar Donetsk 15%. PSV Eindhoven are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

3-0 (8.8%), followed by 4-0 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.0%), 5-0 (7.0%) and 4-1 (7.0%).

Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk score is 54%. PSV Eindhoven have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Shakhtar Donetsk 2%.

How many goals should we expect in PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The model expects 4.80 goals (4.00 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.80 for Shakhtar Donetsk). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.

When and where is PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?

Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven.

What form are PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk in?

PSV Eindhoven: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 6 conceded). Shakhtar Donetsk: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws.

What was the PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for PSV Eindhoven (66%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): missed.

How is the PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.80 for Shakhtar Donetsk) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained