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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

LiverpoolLiverpool2 – 1Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Liverpool was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.

Match analysis

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid was played on Wednesday, September 9, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Anfield, Liverpool. Before kick-off, our model gave Liverpool a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Madrid 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.9%), ahead of 2-0 (11.6%) and 1-1 (10.1%).

Liverpool have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Atletico Madrid. On average Liverpool score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 1.80 and concede 1.40. Over their recent games, Liverpool have averaged 1.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.91 for Atletico Madrid.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Liverpool, 0 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended Liverpool 3-2 Atletico Madrid (Sep 17, 2025). Liverpool out or doubtful: C. Bradley, F. Chiesa, H. Ekitike, J. Gomez and G. Leoni. Atletico Madrid: A. Sorloth, O. Vargas and A. Ortiz. In double chance terms, "Liverpool or draw" stands at 84%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 79%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

63%
Liverpool (Win)
21%
Draw
16%
Atletico Madrid (Win)

Double chance

84%
Liverpool or draw
37%
Atletico Madrid or draw
79%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Liverpool – Atletico Madrid. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Liverpool 1-0 Atletico Madrid11.9%
Liverpool 2-0 Atletico Madrid11.6%
Liverpool 1-1 Atletico Madrid10.1%
Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid9.8%
Liverpool 3-0 Atletico Madrid7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.80 goals in total (1.95 for Liverpool, 0.85 for Atletico Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 49%. Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 14%.

Probability
Liverpool expected goals1.95
Atletico Madrid expected goals0.85
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Liverpool clean sheet43%
Atletico Madrid clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Liverpool

DateOpponentScore
Sep 4, 2026Ipswich · Premier League2-0W
Aug 29, 2026Nottingham Forest · Premier League2-2D
Aug 23, 2026Newcastle · Premier League2-2D
Aug 16, 2026Como · Club Friendlies0-0D
Aug 9, 2026Monaco · Club Friendlies2-3L

Atletico Madrid

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026Athletic Club · La Liga0-3L
Aug 29, 2026Sevilla · La Liga3-1W
Aug 23, 2026Villarreal · La Liga2-2D
Aug 19, 2026Malaga · La Liga2-0W
Aug 14, 2026Marseille · Club Friendlies2-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Liverpool1800
Atletico Madrid800

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 17, 2025Liverpool 3-2 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Liverpool

  • C. Bradley (out)
  • F. Chiesa (out)
  • H. Ekitike (out)
  • J. Gomez (out)
  • G. Leoni (out)

Atletico Madrid

  • A. Sorloth (out)
  • O. Vargas (out)
  • A. Ortiz (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Liverpool a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Madrid 16%. Liverpool are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?

1-0 (11.9%), followed by 2-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?

The probability that both Liverpool and Atletico Madrid score is 49%. Liverpool have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 14%.

How many goals should we expect in Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?

The model expects 2.80 goals (1.95 for Liverpool, 0.85 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.

When and where is Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid played?

Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Anfield, Liverpool.

What form are Liverpool and Atletico Madrid in?

Liverpool: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Liverpool, 0 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended Liverpool 3-2 Atletico Madrid (Sep 17, 2025).

What was the Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Liverpool was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.

How is the Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.95 for Liverpool, 0.85 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained