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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 8, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

FC Porto vs Manchester City: 0-2 result and AI prediction review

FC PortoFC Porto0 – 2Manchester CityManchester City

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: FC Porto 0-2 Manchester City. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (56%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.6%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

Match analysis

FC Porto vs Manchester City was played on Tuesday, September 8, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto. Before kick-off, our model gave FC Porto a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Manchester City 56%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (12.5%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 0-2 (10.6%).

FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 1. Over their last 5 matches, Manchester City have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with FC Porto. On average FC Porto score 2.20 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Manchester City score 2.00 and concede 1.20. Over their recent games, FC Porto have averaged 2.37 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.19 for Manchester City.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FC Porto, 1 for Manchester City and 1 draw. FC Porto out or doubtful: J. Bednarek, V. Froholdt, Gabriel Mec, O. Pietuszewski and D. Prpic. Manchester City: J. Doku and N. O'Reilly. In double chance terms, "FC Porto or draw" stands at 44%, "Manchester City or draw" at 80% and "no draw" at 76%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

20%
FC Porto (Win)
24%
Draw
56%
Manchester City (Win)

Double chance

44%
FC Porto or draw
80%
Manchester City or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as FC Porto – Manchester City. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
FC Porto 0-1 Manchester City12.5%
FC Porto 1-1 Manchester City11.4%
FC Porto 0-2 Manchester City10.6%
FC Porto 1-2 Manchester City9.7%
FC Porto 0-0 Manchester City7.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.61 goals in total (0.91 for FC Porto, 1.70 for Manchester City): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 49%. FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Manchester City in 40%.

Probability
FC Porto expected goals0.91
Manchester City expected goals1.70
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
FC Porto clean sheet18%
Manchester City clean sheet40%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

FC Porto

DateOpponentScore
Sep 4, 2026Moreirense · Primeira Liga2-1W
Aug 29, 2026Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga3-0W
Aug 23, 2026Arouca · Primeira Liga2-0W
Aug 15, 2026Rio Ave · Primeira Liga2-0W
Aug 9, 2026Alverca · Primeira Liga2-0W

Manchester City

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026Coventry · Premier League1-0W
Aug 28, 2026Crystal Palace · Premier League4-1W
Aug 23, 2026Bournemouth · Premier League2-1W
Aug 16, 2026Arsenal · FA Community Shield0-3L
Aug 9, 2026Atletico Madrid · Club Friendlies3-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
FC Porto2400
Manchester City2000

Head-to-head

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FC Porto, 1 for Manchester City and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

FC Porto

  • J. Bednarek (out)
  • V. Froholdt (out)
  • Gabriel Mec (out)
  • O. Pietuszewski (out)
  • D. Prpic (out)

Manchester City

  • J. Doku (out)
  • N. O'Reilly (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the FC Porto vs Manchester City prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave FC Porto a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Manchester City 56%. Manchester City are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.

What is the most likely correct score for FC Porto vs Manchester City?

0-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-0 (7.4%).

Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Manchester City?

The probability that both FC Porto and Manchester City score is 49%. FC Porto have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester City 40%.

How many goals should we expect in FC Porto vs Manchester City?

The model expects 2.61 goals (0.91 for FC Porto, 1.70 for Manchester City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is FC Porto vs Manchester City played?

Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto.

What form are FC Porto and Manchester City in?

FC Porto: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 1 conceded). Manchester City: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Manchester City?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FC Porto, 1 for Manchester City and 1 draw.

What was the FC Porto vs Manchester City result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: FC Porto 0-2 Manchester City. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (56%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.6%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

How is the FC Porto vs Manchester City prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.91 for FC Porto, 1.70 for Manchester City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained