UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 8, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Borussia Dortmund was the model's favourite outcome (52%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
Match analysis
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal was played on Tuesday, September 8, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Before kick-off, our model gave Borussia Dortmund a 52% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villarreal 27%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.2%), ahead of 1-1 (8.9%) and 2-2 (6.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Borussia Dortmund have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Villarreal have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Borussia Dortmund. On average Borussia Dortmund score 2.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Villarreal score 1.60 and concede 1.80. Over their recent games, Borussia Dortmund have averaged 1.77 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.70 for Villarreal.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Villarreal (Nov 25, 2025). Borussia Dortmund out or doubtful: R. Bensebaini, E. Can, S. Inacio, M. Kaba and G. Konstantelias. Villarreal: J. Foyth and C. Romero. In double chance terms, "Borussia Dortmund or draw" stands at 73%, "Villarreal or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Villarreal | 9.2% |
| Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Villarreal | 8.9% |
| Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Villarreal | 6.6% |
| Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Villarreal | 6.4% |
| Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Villarreal | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.52 goals in total (2.08 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.44 for Villarreal): over 2.5 goals has a 68% probability and both teams to score 67%. Everything points to an open game. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Villarreal in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund expected goals | 2.08 |
| Villarreal expected goals | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 24% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | HEBC · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bayern München · German Super Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AS Roma · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Villarreal | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Villarreal | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Borussia Dortmund
- R. Bensebaini (out)
- E. Can (out)
- S. Inacio (out)
- M. Kaba (out)
- G. Konstantelias (out)
Villarreal
- J. Foyth (out)
- C. Romero (out)
Other matches in this competition
- AEK Athens FC 1-0 Lask LinzSep 8, 2026
- Club Brugge KV 2-3 Aston VillaSep 8, 2026
- FC Porto 0-2 Manchester CitySep 8, 2026
- Lille 2-3 Real BetisSep 8, 2026
- Real Madrid 2-1 InterSep 8, 2026
- Barcelona 5-1 FeyenoordSep 9, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 3-1 VikingSep 9, 2026
- Liverpool 2-1 Atletico MadridSep 9, 2026
- Napoli 0-1 ArsenalSep 9, 2026
- Sporting CP 3-1 GalatasaraySep 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Borussia Dortmund a 52% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villarreal 27%. Borussia Dortmund are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
2-1 (9.2%), followed by 1-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.6%), 2-0 (6.4%) and 3-1 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
The probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal score is 67%. Borussia Dortmund have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Villarreal 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
The model expects 3.52 goals (2.08 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.44 for Villarreal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 47%.
When and where is Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal played?
Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal in?
Borussia Dortmund: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded). Villarreal: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Villarreal (Nov 25, 2025).
What was the Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Borussia Dortmund was the model's favourite outcome (52%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
How is the Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.08 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.44 for Villarreal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Borussia Dortmund predictions
- All Villarreal predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Borussia Dortmund cards
- Villarreal cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology