UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Napoli vs Arsenal: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Napoli 0-1 Arsenal. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Arsenal was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (16.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
Match analysis
Napoli vs Arsenal was played on Wednesday, September 9, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples. Before kick-off, our model gave Napoli a 16% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arsenal 59%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (16.3%), ahead of 0-2 (12.9%) and 1-1 (11.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Napoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Arsenal. On average Napoli score 2.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Arsenal score 2.00 and concede 0.40. Over their recent games, Napoli have averaged 1.53 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.66 for Arsenal.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Napoli, 3 for Arsenal and 0 draws. Napoli out or doubtful: A. Buongiorno, Giovane, L. Marianucci and S. McTominay. Arsenal: W. Saliba, C. Mosquera and J. Timber. In double chance terms, "Napoli or draw" stands at 41%, "Arsenal or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Napoli – Arsenal. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (16.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Napoli 0-1 Arsenal | 16.3% |
| Napoli 0-2 Arsenal | 12.9% |
| Napoli 1-1 Arsenal | 11.2% |
| Napoli 0-0 Arsenal | 10.2% |
| Napoli 1-2 Arsenal | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.28 goals in total (0.69 for Napoli, 1.59 for Arsenal): over 2.5 goals has a 40% probability and both teams to score 40%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Napoli keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Arsenal in 50%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Napoli expected goals | 0.69 |
| Arsenal expected goals | 1.59 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 20% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 50% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Genoa · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis · Club Friendlies | 6-2 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celta Vigo · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Aston Villa · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City · FA Community Shield | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Arsenal | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Napoli, 3 for Arsenal and 0 draws.
Out and doubtful
Napoli
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- Giovane (out)
- L. Marianucci (out)
- S. McTominay (out)
Arsenal
- W. Saliba (out)
- C. Mosquera (out)
- J. Timber (out)
Other matches in this competition
- FC Porto 0-2 Manchester CitySep 8, 2026
- Barcelona 5-1 FeyenoordSep 9, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 3-1 VikingSep 9, 2026
- Liverpool 2-1 Atletico MadridSep 9, 2026
- Sporting CP 3-1 GalatasaraySep 9, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 6-1 Slovan BratislavaSep 9, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaSep 10, 2026
- PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskSep 10, 2026
- Manchester United 4-0 Sabah FASep 10, 2026
- Como 4-1 RB LeipzigSep 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Napoli vs Arsenal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Napoli a 16% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arsenal 59%. Arsenal are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Napoli vs Arsenal?
0-1 (16.3%), followed by 0-2 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%) and 1-2 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Arsenal?
The probability that both Napoli and Arsenal score is 40%. Napoli have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Arsenal 50%.
How many goals should we expect in Napoli vs Arsenal?
The model expects 2.28 goals (0.69 for Napoli, 1.59 for Arsenal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Napoli vs Arsenal played?
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples.
What form are Napoli and Arsenal in?
Napoli: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 8 conceded). Arsenal: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Arsenal?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Napoli, 3 for Arsenal and 0 draws.
What was the Napoli vs Arsenal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Napoli 0-1 Arsenal. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Arsenal was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (16.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
How is the Napoli vs Arsenal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.69 for Napoli, 1.59 for Arsenal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Napoli predictions
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