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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 27, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland: 1-4 result and AI prediction review

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1 – 4FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-4 FC Midtjylland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for HNK Rijeka (50%), while victory for FC Midtjylland was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland was played on Thursday, August 27, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka. Before kick-off, our model gave HNK Rijeka a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FC Midtjylland 25%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.9%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, HNK Rijeka have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, FC Midtjylland have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average HNK Rijeka score 0.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; FC Midtjylland score 1.40 and concede 1.00.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for HNK Rijeka, 1 for FC Midtjylland and 0 draws. The most recent ended FC Midtjylland 2-0 HNK Rijeka (Aug 20, 2026). FC Midtjylland: V. Bak, E. Chilufya, O. Diao, M. Gogorza and Junior Brumado. In double chance terms, "HNK Rijeka or draw" stands at 75%, "FC Midtjylland or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

50%
HNK Rijeka (Win)
25%
Draw
25%
FC Midtjylland (Win)

Double chance

75%
HNK Rijeka or draw
50%
FC Midtjylland or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as HNK Rijeka – FC Midtjylland. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
HNK Rijeka 1-1 FC Midtjylland11.9%
HNK Rijeka 1-0 FC Midtjylland11.3%
HNK Rijeka 2-1 FC Midtjylland9.5%
HNK Rijeka 2-0 FC Midtjylland9.0%
HNK Rijeka 0-1 FC Midtjylland7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.59 for HNK Rijeka, 1.05 for FC Midtjylland): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. HNK Rijeka keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, FC Midtjylland in 20%.

Probability
HNK Rijeka expected goals1.59
FC Midtjylland expected goals1.05
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
HNK Rijeka clean sheet35%
FC Midtjylland clean sheet20%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

HNK Rijeka

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026FC Midtjylland · UEFA Conference League0-2L
Aug 13, 2026Ilves · UEFA Conference League1-1D
Aug 6, 2026Ilves · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 30, 2026Derry City · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 23, 2026Derry City · UEFA Conference League1-0W

FC Midtjylland

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026HNK Rijeka · UEFA Conference League2-0W
Aug 13, 2026Bohemians · UEFA Conference League3-2W
Aug 6, 2026Bohemians · UEFA Conference League2-0W
Jul 30, 2026Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League0-2L
Jul 23, 2026Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
HNK Rijeka1696

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 20, 2026FC Midtjylland 2-0 HNK RijekaUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

HNK Rijeka

No absences reported.

FC Midtjylland

  • V. Bak (out)
  • E. Chilufya (out)
  • O. Diao (out)
  • M. Gogorza (out)
  • Junior Brumado (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave HNK Rijeka a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FC Midtjylland 25%. HNK Rijeka are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.

What is the most likely correct score for HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland?

1-1 (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.0%) and 0-1 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland?

The probability that both HNK Rijeka and FC Midtjylland score is 52%. HNK Rijeka have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Midtjylland 20%.

How many goals should we expect in HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland?

The model expects 2.64 goals (1.59 for HNK Rijeka, 1.05 for FC Midtjylland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland played?

Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka.

What form are HNK Rijeka and FC Midtjylland in?

HNK Rijeka: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 3 conceded). FC Midtjylland: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between HNK Rijeka and FC Midtjylland?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for HNK Rijeka, 1 for FC Midtjylland and 0 draws. The most recent ended FC Midtjylland 2-0 HNK Rijeka (Aug 20, 2026).

What was the HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-4 FC Midtjylland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for HNK Rijeka (50%), while victory for FC Midtjylland was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.59 for HNK Rijeka, 1.05 for FC Midtjylland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained