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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 27, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split: 2-3 result and AI prediction review

Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa2 – 3HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-3 HNK Hajduk Split. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Raków Częstochowa (44%), while victory for HNK Hajduk Split was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.

Match analysis

Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split met on Thursday, August 27, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow, Czestochowa. Before kick-off, our model gave Raków Częstochowa a 44% chance of winning, the draw 28% and HNK Hajduk Split 28%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.7%) and 1-1 (9.9%).

Raków Częstochowa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, HNK Hajduk Split have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Raków Częstochowa score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; HNK Hajduk Split score 2.60 and concede 1.20.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for HNK Hajduk Split and 1 draw. The most recent ended HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków Częstochowa (Aug 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Raków Częstochowa or draw" stands at 72%, "HNK Hajduk Split or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 72%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

44%
Raków Częstochowa (Win)
28%
Draw
28%
HNK Hajduk Split (Win)

Double chance

72%
Raków Częstochowa or draw
56%
HNK Hajduk Split or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Raków Częstochowa – HNK Hajduk Split. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Raków Częstochowa 1-0 HNK Hajduk Split11.8%
Raków Częstochowa 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split11.7%
Raków Częstochowa 1-1 HNK Hajduk Split9.9%
Raków Częstochowa 2-1 HNK Hajduk Split9.8%
Raków Częstochowa 3-0 HNK Hajduk Split7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.98 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.84 for HNK Hajduk Split, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 54% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, HNK Hajduk Split in 14%.

Probability
Raków Częstochowa expected goals1.98
HNK Hajduk Split expected goals0.84
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Raków Częstochowa clean sheet43%
HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Raków Częstochowa

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Conference League2-2D
Aug 13, 2026Hammarby FF · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Aug 6, 2026Hammarby FF · UEFA Conference League0-0D
Jul 30, 2026Valletta FC · UEFA Conference League4-0W
Jul 23, 2026Valletta FC · UEFA Conference League3-1W

HNK Hajduk Split

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026Raków Częstochowa · UEFA Conference League2-2D
Aug 13, 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius · UEFA Conference League4-0W
Aug 6, 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius · UEFA Conference League5-2W
Jul 30, 2026Pafos · UEFA Europa League0-2L
Jul 23, 2026Pafos · UEFA Europa League2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Raków Częstochowa2146

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 20, 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków CzęstochowaUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Raków Częstochowa

No absences reported.

HNK Hajduk Split

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Raków Częstochowa a 44% chance of winning, the draw 28% and HNK Hajduk Split 28%. Raków Częstochowa are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split?

1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split?

The probability that both Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split score is 49%. Raków Częstochowa have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, HNK Hajduk Split 14%.

How many goals should we expect in Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split?

The model expects 2.82 goals (1.98 for Raków Częstochowa, 0.84 for HNK Hajduk Split). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 31%.

When and where is Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split played?

Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow, Czestochowa.

What form are Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split in?

Raków Częstochowa: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). HNK Hajduk Split: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for HNK Hajduk Split and 1 draw. The most recent ended HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków Częstochowa (Aug 20, 2026).

What was the Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-3 HNK Hajduk Split. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Raków Częstochowa (44%), while victory for HNK Hajduk Split was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.

How is the Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.98 for Raków Częstochowa, 0.84 for HNK Hajduk Split) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained