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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 27, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv1 – 1FC LuganoFC Lugano

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 FC Lugano. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Maccabi Tel Aviv (49%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

Match analysis

Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano met on Thursday, August 27, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Adjarabet Arena, Batumi. Before kick-off, our model gave Maccabi Tel Aviv a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FC Lugano 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Maccabi Tel Aviv have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 12 and conceding 4. FC Lugano therefore arrive in far better shape than Maccabi Tel Aviv. On average Maccabi Tel Aviv score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; FC Lugano score 2.40 and concede 0.80.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1 for FC Lugano and 0 draws. The most recent ended FC Lugano 2-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Aug 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw" stands at 74%, "FC Lugano or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

49%
Maccabi Tel Aviv (Win)
25%
Draw
26%
FC Lugano (Win)

Double chance

74%
Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw
51%
FC Lugano or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Maccabi Tel Aviv – FC Lugano. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 FC Lugano12.0%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-0 FC Lugano11.2%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-1 FC Lugano9.4%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 FC Lugano8.8%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-1 FC Lugano7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.56 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.07 for FC Lugano, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Maccabi Tel Aviv keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, FC Lugano in 21%.

Probability
Maccabi Tel Aviv expected goals1.56
FC Lugano expected goals1.07
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet34%
FC Lugano clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Maccabi Tel Aviv

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026FC Lugano · UEFA Conference League1-2L
Aug 13, 2026CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League3-1W
Aug 6, 2026CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League0-3L
Jul 30, 2026Sheriff Tiraspol · UEFA Europa League1-0W
Jul 23, 2026Sheriff Tiraspol · UEFA Europa League5-0W

FC Lugano

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League2-1W
Aug 13, 2026NSI Runavik · UEFA Conference League2-2D
Aug 6, 2026NSI Runavik · UEFA Conference League2-0W
Jul 29, 2026Dukagjini · UEFA Conference League5-1W
Jul 23, 2026Dukagjini · UEFA Conference League1-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 20, 2026FC Lugano 2-1 Maccabi Tel AvivUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Maccabi Tel Aviv

No absences reported.

FC Lugano

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Maccabi Tel Aviv a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FC Lugano 26%. Maccabi Tel Aviv are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano?

1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.8%) and 0-1 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano?

The probability that both Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano score is 52%. Maccabi Tel Aviv have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Lugano 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano?

The model expects 2.63 goals (1.56 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.07 for FC Lugano). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano played?

Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Adjarabet Arena, Batumi.

What form are Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano in?

Maccabi Tel Aviv: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). FC Lugano: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1 for FC Lugano and 0 draws. The most recent ended FC Lugano 2-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Aug 20, 2026).

What was the Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 FC Lugano. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Maccabi Tel Aviv (49%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

How is the Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.56 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.07 for FC Lugano) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained