UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 27, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Qarabag vs Twente: 1-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Qarabag 1-4 Twente. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Twente was the model's favourite outcome (42%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): correct.
Match analysis
Qarabag vs Twente was played on Thursday, August 27, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku. Before kick-off, our model gave Qarabag a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Twente 42%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.5%), ahead of 1-1 (8.9%) and 0-2 (7.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Qarabag have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 3 and conceding 1. Over their last 5 matches, Twente have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Qarabag score 0.60 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Twente score 2.40 and concede 1.20.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Qarabag, 0 for Twente and 0 draws. The most recent ended Twente 0-1 Qarabag (Aug 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Qarabag or draw" stands at 58%, "Twente or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Qarabag – Twente. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Qarabag 1-2 Twente | 9.5% |
| Qarabag 1-1 Twente | 8.9% |
| Qarabag 0-2 Twente | 7.3% |
| Qarabag 0-1 Twente | 6.8% |
| Qarabag 1-3 Twente | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.45 goals in total (1.31 for Qarabag, 2.14 for Twente): over 2.5 goals has a 67% probability and both teams to score 64%. Everything points to an open game. Qarabag keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Twente in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Qarabag expected goals | 1.31 |
| Twente expected goals | 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Qarabag clean sheet | 12% |
| Twente clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Qarabag
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Twente · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv · UEFA Conference League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv · UEFA Conference League | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 30, 2026 | CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 23, 2026 | CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
Twente
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Qarabag · UEFA Conference League | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dunajska Streda · UEFA Conference League | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Heerenveen · Eredivisie | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dunajska Streda · UEFA Conference League | 6-0 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Twente 0-1 Qarabag | UEFA Conference League |
Out and doubtful
Qarabag
No absences reported.
Twente
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- KuPS 1-0 Shamrock RoversAug 27, 2026
- Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 FC LuganoAug 27, 2026
- FK Jablonec 1-0 RangersAug 27, 2026
- Monaco 4-1 Gornik ZabrzeAug 27, 2026
- SC Freiburg 4-1 MotherwellAug 27, 2026
- Raków Częstochowa 2-3 HNK Hajduk SplitAug 27, 2026
- Inter Club d'Escaldes 0-0 DritaAug 27, 2026
- Riga 2-1 KI KlaksvikAug 27, 2026
- Brann 3-2 PAOKAug 27, 2026
- Hradec Králové 1-2 PanathinaikosAug 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Qarabag vs Twente prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Qarabag a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Twente 42%. Twente are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Qarabag vs Twente?
1-2 (9.5%), followed by 1-1 (8.9%), 0-2 (7.3%), 0-1 (6.8%) and 1-3 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Qarabag vs Twente?
The probability that both Qarabag and Twente score is 64%. Qarabag have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Twente 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Qarabag vs Twente?
The model expects 3.45 goals (1.31 for Qarabag, 2.14 for Twente). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Qarabag vs Twente played?
Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku.
What form are Qarabag and Twente in?
Qarabag: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 1 conceded). Twente: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Qarabag and Twente?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Qarabag, 0 for Twente and 0 draws. The most recent ended Twente 0-1 Qarabag (Aug 20, 2026).
What was the Qarabag vs Twente result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Qarabag 1-4 Twente. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Twente was the model's favourite outcome (42%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): correct.
How is the Qarabag vs Twente prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.31 for Qarabag, 2.14 for Twente) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Qarabag predictions
- All Twente predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology