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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

HNK Rijeka vs Ilves: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1 – 0IlvesIlves

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Ilves. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for HNK Rijeka was the model's favourite outcome (57%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

Match analysis

HNK Rijeka vs Ilves was played on Thursday, August 6, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka. Before kick-off, our model gave HNK Rijeka a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ilves 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.0%) and 2-0 (10.4%).

HNK Rijeka are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 1. Over their last 5 matches, Ilves have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with HNK Rijeka. On average HNK Rijeka score 1.80 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Ilves score 1.20 and concede 0.40.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Rijeka and Ilves: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "HNK Rijeka or draw" stands at 80%, "Ilves or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

57%
HNK Rijeka (Win)
23%
Draw
20%
Ilves (Win)

Double chance

80%
HNK Rijeka or draw
43%
Ilves or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as HNK Rijeka – Ilves. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
HNK Rijeka 1-0 Ilves11.7%
HNK Rijeka 1-1 Ilves11.0%
HNK Rijeka 2-0 Ilves10.4%
HNK Rijeka 2-1 Ilves9.8%
HNK Rijeka 0-0 Ilves6.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.72 goals in total (1.78 for HNK Rijeka, 0.94 for Ilves): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 51%. HNK Rijeka keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Ilves in 17%.

Probability
HNK Rijeka expected goals1.78
Ilves expected goals0.94
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
HNK Rijeka clean sheet39%
Ilves clean sheet17%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

HNK Rijeka

DateOpponentScore
Jul 30, 2026Derry City · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 23, 2026Derry City · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 3, 2026Radomlje · Club Friendlies2-0W
Jun 30, 2026Brinje-Grosuplje · Club Friendlies3-0W
Jun 27, 2026Bravo · Club Friendlies2-1W

Ilves

DateOpponentScore
Jul 30, 2026Stjarnan · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 23, 2026Stjarnan · UEFA Conference League0-1L
Jul 16, 2026FC Differdange 03 · UEFA Conference League3-1W
Jul 8, 2026FC Differdange 03 · UEFA Conference League0-0D
Mar 27, 2026MP · Club Friendlies2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
HNK Rijeka1696

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Rijeka and Ilves: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

HNK Rijeka

No absences reported.

Ilves

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the HNK Rijeka vs Ilves prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave HNK Rijeka a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ilves 20%. HNK Rijeka are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for HNK Rijeka vs Ilves?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.6%).

Will both teams score in HNK Rijeka vs Ilves?

The probability that both HNK Rijeka and Ilves score is 51%. HNK Rijeka have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ilves 17%.

How many goals should we expect in HNK Rijeka vs Ilves?

The model expects 2.72 goals (1.78 for HNK Rijeka, 0.94 for Ilves). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is HNK Rijeka vs Ilves played?

Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka.

What form are HNK Rijeka and Ilves in?

HNK Rijeka: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 1 conceded). Ilves: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded).

What was the HNK Rijeka vs Ilves result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Ilves. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for HNK Rijeka was the model's favourite outcome (57%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

How is the HNK Rijeka vs Ilves prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.78 for HNK Rijeka, 0.94 for Ilves) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained