UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 20, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Twente vs Qarabag: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Twente 0-1 Qarabag. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Twente (60%), while victory for Qarabag was rated at only 17%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): missed.
Match analysis
Twente and Qarabag met on Thursday, August 20, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede. Before kick-off, our model gave Twente a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Qarabag 17%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (10.8%), followed by 3-0 (9.8%) and 2-1 (8.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Twente have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Qarabag have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 1. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Twente score 2.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Qarabag score 1.00 and concede 0.20.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Twente, 0 for Qarabag and 2 draws. Twente out or doubtful: M. Hilgers and S. Lemkin. In double chance terms, "Twente or draw" stands at 83%, "Qarabag or draw" at 40% and "no draw" at 77%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Twente – Qarabag. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Twente 2-0 Qarabag | 10.8% |
| Twente 3-0 Qarabag | 9.8% |
| Twente 2-1 Qarabag | 8.7% |
| Twente 3-1 Qarabag | 8.0% |
| Twente 1-0 Qarabag | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.74 expected goals for Twente and 0.81 for Qarabag, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 69% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Goals look likely in this one. Twente keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Qarabag in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Twente expected goals | 2.74 |
| Qarabag expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Twente clean sheet | 45% |
| Qarabag clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Twente
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dunajska Streda · UEFA Conference League | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Heerenveen · Eredivisie | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dunajska Streda · UEFA Conference League | 6-0 | W |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Genk · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Qarabag
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv · UEFA Conference League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv · UEFA Conference League | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 30, 2026 | CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 23, 2026 | CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vestri · UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
Head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Twente, 0 for Qarabag and 2 draws.
Out and doubtful
Twente
- M. Hilgers (out)
- S. Lemkin (out)
Qarabag
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- KI Klaksvik 0-0 RigaAug 20, 2026
- PAOK 1-1 BrannAug 20, 2026
- Gornik Zabrze 2-3 MonacoAug 20, 2026
- Drita 2-2 Inter Club d'EscaldesAug 20, 2026
- Vikingur Reykjavik 1-3 Borac Banja LukaAug 20, 2026
- FC Sion 2-4 AjaxAug 20, 2026
- Panathinaikos 2-2 Hradec KrálovéAug 20, 2026
- Motherwell 1-3 SC FreiburgAug 20, 2026
- Atalanta 0-0 Hapoel Tel AvivAug 20, 2026
- FC Lugano 2-1 Maccabi Tel AvivAug 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Twente vs Qarabag prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Twente a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Qarabag 17%. Twente are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Twente vs Qarabag?
2-0 (10.8%), followed by 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (8.0%) and 1-0 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Twente vs Qarabag?
The probability that both Twente and Qarabag score is 52%. Twente have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Qarabag 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Twente vs Qarabag?
The model expects 3.55 goals (2.74 for Twente, 0.81 for Qarabag). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 69%, over 3.5 goals 47%.
When and where is Twente vs Qarabag played?
Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede.
What form are Twente and Qarabag in?
Twente: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 7 conceded). Qarabag: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 1 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Qarabag?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Twente, 0 for Qarabag and 2 draws.
What was the Twente vs Qarabag result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Twente 0-1 Qarabag. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Twente (60%), while victory for Qarabag was rated at only 17%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): missed.
How is the Twente vs Qarabag prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.74 for Twente, 0.81 for Qarabag) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Twente predictions
- All Qarabag predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology