UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Benfica vs Aarhus: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Benfica 3-1 Aarhus. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Benfica at 83%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.0%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): correct.
Match analysis
Benfica and Aarhus met on Thursday, August 20, 2026, a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. Before kick-off, our model gave Benfica a 83% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Aarhus 6%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (9.0%), followed by 4-0 (9.0%) and 5-0 (7.2%).
Benfica are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 21 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Aarhus have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Benfica therefore arrive in far better shape than Aarhus. On average Benfica score 4.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Aarhus score 1.40 and concede 2.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Benfica and Aarhus: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Benfica or draw" stands at 94%, "Aarhus or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 89%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Benfica – Aarhus. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Benfica 3-0 Aarhus | 9.0% |
| Benfica 4-0 Aarhus | 9.0% |
| Benfica 5-0 Aarhus | 7.2% |
| Benfica 3-1 Aarhus | 7.0% |
| Benfica 4-1 Aarhus | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 4.00 expected goals for Benfica and 0.77 for Aarhus, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 86% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Goals look likely in this one. Benfica keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Aarhus in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Benfica expected goals | 4.00 |
| Aarhus expected goals | 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 46% |
| Aarhus clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Benfica
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 7-0 | W |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Europa League | 6-1 | W |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC ST. Gallen · UEFA Europa League | 5-0 | W |
Aarhus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lech Poznan · UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lech Poznan · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Benfica and Aarhus: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Benfica
No absences reported.
Aarhus
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Mjallby AIF 0-1 Red Bull SalzburgAug 20, 2026
- Jagiellonia 4-0 SaburtaloAug 20, 2026
- Trabzonspor 0-1 Ferencvarosi TCAug 20, 2026
- Lech Poznan 7-0 FC ThunAug 20, 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-0 LillestromAug 20, 2026
- Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Ararat-ArmeniaAug 20, 2026
- Beşiktaş 3-0 Kauno ŽalgirisAug 20, 2026
- FK Crvena Zvezda 3-0 PlzenAug 20, 2026
- OFI 3-0 CSKA SofiaAug 20, 2026
- St. Truiden 1-0 Omonia NicosiaAug 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Benfica vs Aarhus prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Benfica a 83% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Aarhus 6%. Benfica are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Benfica vs Aarhus?
3-0 (9.0%), followed by 4-0 (9.0%), 5-0 (7.2%), 3-1 (7.0%) and 4-1 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Aarhus?
The probability that both Benfica and Aarhus score is 53%. Benfica have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Aarhus 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Benfica vs Aarhus?
The model expects 4.77 goals (4.00 for Benfica, 0.77 for Aarhus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 70%.
When and where is Benfica vs Aarhus played?
Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon.
What form are Benfica and Aarhus in?
Benfica: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (21 scored, 4 conceded). Aarhus: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 11 conceded).
What was the Benfica vs Aarhus result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Benfica 3-1 Aarhus. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Benfica at 83%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.0%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): correct.
How is the Benfica vs Aarhus prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Benfica, 0.77 for Aarhus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Benfica predictions
- All Aarhus predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology