UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 20, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo: 4-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Jagiellonia 4-0 Saburtalo. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Jagiellonia at 53%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Jagiellonia and Saburtalo met on Thursday, August 20, 2026, a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Chorten Arena, Bialystok. Before kick-off, our model gave Jagiellonia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Saburtalo 23%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Jagiellonia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 5. Saburtalo have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 5 and conceding 6. Jagiellonia therefore arrive in far better shape than Saburtalo. On average Jagiellonia score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Saburtalo score 1.00 and concede 1.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Jagiellonia and Saburtalo: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Jagiellonia or draw" stands at 77%, "Saburtalo or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Jagiellonia – Saburtalo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jagiellonia 1-1 Saburtalo | 11.6% |
| Jagiellonia 1-0 Saburtalo | 11.5% |
| Jagiellonia 2-1 Saburtalo | 9.6% |
| Jagiellonia 2-0 Saburtalo | 9.5% |
| Jagiellonia 0-1 Saburtalo | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.66 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.01 for Saburtalo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Saburtalo in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Jagiellonia expected goals | 1.66 |
| Saburtalo expected goals | 1.01 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Jagiellonia clean sheet | 36% |
| Saburtalo clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Jagiellonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Rangers · UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rangers · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Polessya · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fiorentina · UEFA Conference League | 4-2 | W |
Saburtalo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Larne · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Larne · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Flora Tallinn · UEFA Champions League | 2-2 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Jagiellonia and Saburtalo: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Jagiellonia
No absences reported.
Saburtalo
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Kairat Almaty 0-3 AnderlechtAug 20, 2026
- Mjallby AIF 0-1 Red Bull SalzburgAug 20, 2026
- Trabzonspor 0-1 Ferencvarosi TCAug 20, 2026
- Lech Poznan 7-0 FC ThunAug 20, 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-0 LillestromAug 20, 2026
- Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Ararat-ArmeniaAug 20, 2026
- Beşiktaş 3-0 Kauno ŽalgirisAug 20, 2026
- FK Crvena Zvezda 3-0 PlzenAug 20, 2026
- OFI 3-0 CSKA SofiaAug 20, 2026
- St. Truiden 1-0 Omonia NicosiaAug 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Jagiellonia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Saburtalo 23%. Jagiellonia are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.5%) and 0-1 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?
The probability that both Jagiellonia and Saburtalo score is 52%. Jagiellonia have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Saburtalo 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.66 for Jagiellonia, 1.01 for Saburtalo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo played?
Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Chorten Arena, Bialystok.
What form are Jagiellonia and Saburtalo in?
Jagiellonia: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). Saburtalo: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded).
What was the Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Jagiellonia 4-0 Saburtalo. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Jagiellonia at 53%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Jagiellonia, 1.01 for Saburtalo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Jagiellonia predictions
- All Saburtalo predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology