UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Lech Poznan vs FC Thun: 7-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lech Poznan at 55%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Lech Poznan and FC Thun met on Thursday, August 20, 2026, a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Enea Poznań, Poznan. Before kick-off, our model gave Lech Poznan a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Thun 21%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%) and 2-0 (10.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lech Poznan have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 5. FC Thun have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 8. Lech Poznan therefore arrive in far better shape than FC Thun. On average Lech Poznan score 2.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; FC Thun score 1.80 and concede 1.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lech Poznan and FC Thun: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Lech Poznan or draw" stands at 79%, "FC Thun or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lech Poznan – FC Thun. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lech Poznan 1-0 FC Thun | 11.7% |
| Lech Poznan 1-1 FC Thun | 11.3% |
| Lech Poznan 2-0 FC Thun | 10.0% |
| Lech Poznan 2-1 FC Thun | 9.7% |
| Lech Poznan 0-0 FC Thun | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.72 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.97 for FC Thun, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, FC Thun in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lech Poznan expected goals | 1.72 |
| FC Thun expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Lech Poznan clean sheet | 38% |
| FC Thun clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lech Poznan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik · UEFA Europa League | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik · UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Aarhus · UEFA Champions League | 0-3 | L |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Aarhus · UEFA Champions League | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Podbrezová · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
FC Thun
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik · UEFA Europa League | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik · UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 11, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lech Poznan and FC Thun: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Lech Poznan
No absences reported.
FC Thun
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Mjallby AIF 0-1 Red Bull SalzburgAug 20, 2026
- Jagiellonia 4-0 SaburtaloAug 20, 2026
- Trabzonspor 0-1 Ferencvarosi TCAug 20, 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-0 LillestromAug 20, 2026
- Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Ararat-ArmeniaAug 20, 2026
- Beşiktaş 3-0 Kauno ŽalgirisAug 20, 2026
- FK Crvena Zvezda 3-0 PlzenAug 20, 2026
- OFI 3-0 CSKA SofiaAug 20, 2026
- St. Truiden 1-0 Omonia NicosiaAug 20, 2026
- Benfica 3-1 AarhusAug 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lech Poznan vs FC Thun prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lech Poznan a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Thun 21%. Lech Poznan are therefore favourites. Final score: 7-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?
The probability that both Lech Poznan and FC Thun score is 51%. Lech Poznan have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Thun 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?
The model expects 2.69 goals (1.72 for Lech Poznan, 0.97 for FC Thun). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Lech Poznan vs FC Thun played?
Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Enea Poznań, Poznan.
What form are Lech Poznan and FC Thun in?
Lech Poznan: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded). FC Thun: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What was the Lech Poznan vs FC Thun result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lech Poznan at 55%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Lech Poznan vs FC Thun prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.72 for Lech Poznan, 0.97 for FC Thun) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lech Poznan predictions
- All FC Thun predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology