La Liga· Kick-off : Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Real Madrid was the model's favourite outcome (75%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (84%): correct.
Match analysis
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad was played on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 1). Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. Before kick-off, our model gave Real Madrid a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Real Sociedad 9%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (10.4%), ahead of 4-0 (10.4%) and 5-0 (8.3%).
Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 4. Real Sociedad have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Real Madrid. On average Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Real Sociedad score 1.40 and concede 2.00. In the table, Real Madrid sit 7th with 3 points from 1 games, Real Sociedad 19th with 0 points from 1. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Real Madrid have averaged 2.71 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.36 for Real Sociedad.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Real Sociedad and 0 draws. The most recent ended Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad (Feb 14, 2026). Real Madrid out or doubtful: R. Asencio, Eder Militao, Endrick, F. Mendy and T. Pitarch. Real Sociedad: J. Gorrotxategi, G. Guedes, P. Marin and A. Odriozola. In double chance terms, "Real Madrid or draw" stands at 91%, "Real Sociedad or draw" at 25% and "no draw" at 84%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Real Madrid – Real Sociedad. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 3-0 Real Sociedad | 10.4% |
| Real Madrid 4-0 Real Sociedad | 10.4% |
| Real Madrid 5-0 Real Sociedad | 8.3% |
| Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad | 7.8% |
| Real Madrid 3-1 Real Sociedad | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.63 goals in total (4.00 for Real Madrid, 0.63 for Real Sociedad): over 2.5 goals has a 84% probability and both teams to score 46%. Everything points to an open game. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Real Sociedad in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid expected goals | 4.00 |
| Real Sociedad expected goals | 0.63 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 68% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 53% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Real Sociedad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa · Club Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Real Sociedad | 19 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Real Madrid
- R. Asencio (out)
- Eder Militao (out)
- Endrick (out)
- F. Mendy (out)
- T. Pitarch (out)
Real Sociedad
- J. Gorrotxategi (out)
- G. Guedes (out)
- P. Marin (out)
- A. Odriozola (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Elche 0-5 BarcelonaAug 23, 2026
- Osasuna 0-0 LevanteAug 24, 2026
- Malaga 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaAug 24, 2026
- Valencia 0-1 Real BetisAug 25, 2026
- Celta Vigo 1-2 OsasunaAug 27, 2026
- Barcelona 2-0 Athletic ClubAug 27, 2026
- Racing Santander 3-2 ElcheAug 28, 2026
- Alaves 1-0 VillarrealAug 28, 2026
- Levante 5-2 Real BetisAug 29, 2026
- Real Sociedad 2-1 EspanyolAug 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Real Madrid a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Real Sociedad 9%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
3-0 (10.4%), followed by 4-0 (10.4%), 5-0 (8.3%), 2-0 (7.8%) and 3-1 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
The probability that both Real Madrid and Real Sociedad score is 46%. Real Madrid have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Sociedad 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
The model expects 4.63 goals (4.00 for Real Madrid, 0.63 for Real Sociedad). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 84%, over 3.5 goals 68%.
When and where is Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad played?
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 1. Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid.
What form are Real Madrid and Real Sociedad in?
Real Madrid: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded). Real Sociedad: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Real Sociedad?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Real Sociedad and 0 draws. The most recent ended Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad (Feb 14, 2026).
What was the Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Real Madrid was the model's favourite outcome (75%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (84%): correct.
How is the Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Real Madrid, 0.63 for Real Sociedad) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Real Madrid predictions
- All Real Sociedad predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology