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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Friday, August 28, 2026, 20:30 (UK time)

Alaves vs Villarreal: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

AlavesAlaves1 – 0VillarrealVillarreal

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Villarreal (42%), while victory for Alaves was rated at only 30%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): correct.

Match analysis

Alaves and Villarreal met on Friday, August 28, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz. Before kick-off, our model gave Alaves a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Villarreal 42%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.9%) and 1-0 (9.7%).

Alaves are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Villarreal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Alaves score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Villarreal score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Alaves sit 5th with 4 points from 2 games, Villarreal 10th with 2 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Alaves have averaged 1.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.14 for Villarreal.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Villarreal and 1 draw. The most recent ended Alaves 1-1 Villarreal (Mar 13, 2026). Alaves out or doubtful: F. Garces. Villarreal: A. Diatta and W. Kambwala. In double chance terms, "Alaves or draw" stands at 58%, "Villarreal or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 73%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

30%
Alaves (Win)
27%
Draw
42%
Villarreal (Win)

Double chance

58%
Alaves or draw
70%
Villarreal or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Alaves – Villarreal. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Alaves 1-1 Villarreal12.9%
Alaves 0-1 Villarreal11.9%
Alaves 1-0 Villarreal9.7%
Alaves 0-0 Villarreal9.0%
Alaves 1-2 Villarreal8.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.08 expected goals for Alaves and 1.33 for Villarreal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 43% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Alaves keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Villarreal in 34%.

Probability
Alaves expected goals1.08
Villarreal expected goals1.33
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Alaves clean sheet26%
Villarreal clean sheet34%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Alaves

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1-1D
Aug 15, 2026Getafe · La Liga3-0W
Aug 7, 2026Racing Santander · Club Friendlies1-1D
Jul 31, 2026Castellón · Club Friendlies3-0W
Jul 25, 2026Girona · Club Friendlies1-0W

Villarreal

DateOpponentScore
Aug 23, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga2-2D
Aug 16, 2026Racing Santander · La Liga2-2D
Aug 8, 2026Galatasaray · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 5, 2026Levante · Club Friendlies1-0W
Jul 25, 2026PSV Eindhoven · Club Friendlies3-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Alaves542
Villarreal1022

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 13, 2026Alaves 1-1 VillarrealLa Liga
Jan 10, 2026Villarreal 3-1 AlavesLa Liga

Out and doubtful

Alaves

  • F. Garces (out)

Villarreal

  • A. Diatta (out)
  • W. Kambwala (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Alaves vs Villarreal prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Alaves a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Villarreal 42%. Villarreal are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Alaves vs Villarreal?

1-1 (12.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.0%) and 1-2 (8.6%).

Will both teams score in Alaves vs Villarreal?

The probability that both Alaves and Villarreal score is 49%. Alaves have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Villarreal 34%.

How many goals should we expect in Alaves vs Villarreal?

The model expects 2.41 goals (1.08 for Alaves, 1.33 for Villarreal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.

When and where is Alaves vs Villarreal played?

Friday, August 28, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 3. Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.

What form are Alaves and Villarreal in?

Alaves: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Villarreal: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Villarreal and 1 draw. The most recent ended Alaves 1-1 Villarreal (Mar 13, 2026).

What was the Alaves vs Villarreal result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Villarreal (42%), while victory for Alaves was rated at only 30%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): correct.

How is the Alaves vs Villarreal prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.08 for Alaves, 1.33 for Villarreal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained