La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:30 (UK time)
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid: 1-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sevilla (62%), while victory for Atletico Madrid was rated at only 14%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.
Match analysis
Sevilla and Atletico Madrid met on Saturday, August 29, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla. Before kick-off, our model gave Sevilla a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 14%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (16.2%), followed by 2-0 (13.6%) and 1-1 (10.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sevilla have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Sevilla therefore arrive in far better shape than Atletico Madrid. On average Sevilla score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Sevilla sit 3rd with 6 points from 2 games, Atletico Madrid 6th with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Sevilla have averaged 1.30 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.85 for Atletico Madrid.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sevilla, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid (Apr 11, 2026). Sevilla out or doubtful: R. Vargas, A. Gonzalez and Marcao. Atletico Madrid: T. Lemar, C. Romero, A. Sorloth, O. Vargas and R. Le Normand. In double chance terms, "Sevilla or draw" stands at 86%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sevilla – Atletico Madrid. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sevilla 1-0 Atletico Madrid | 16.2% |
| Sevilla 2-0 Atletico Madrid | 13.6% |
| Sevilla 1-1 Atletico Madrid | 10.7% |
| Sevilla 0-0 Atletico Madrid | 9.7% |
| Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid | 9.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.67 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.66 for Atletico Madrid, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 41% and "both teams to score" at 39%. Few goals are expected here. Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 52% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sevilla expected goals | 1.67 |
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 0.66 |
| Both teams to score | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 52% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Sevilla
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Utrecht · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Atletico Madrid | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 3-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Sevilla
- R. Vargas (out)
- A. Gonzalez (out)
- Marcao (out)
Atletico Madrid
- T. Lemar (out)
- C. Romero (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
- O. Vargas (out)
- R. Le Normand (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Barcelona 2-0 Athletic ClubAug 27, 2026
- Racing Santander 3-2 ElcheAug 28, 2026
- Alaves 1-0 VillarrealAug 28, 2026
- Levante 5-2 Real BetisAug 29, 2026
- Real Sociedad 2-1 EspanyolAug 29, 2026
- Real Madrid 4-0 MalagaAug 30, 2026
- Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 ValenciaAug 30, 2026
- Celta Vigo 0-2 Athletic ClubAug 30, 2026
- Osasuna 1-0 GetafeAug 31, 2026
- Barcelona 5-2 Rayo VallecanoAug 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sevilla a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 14%. Sevilla are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
1-0 (16.2%), followed by 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (9.0%).
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
The probability that both Sevilla and Atletico Madrid score is 39%. Sevilla have a 52% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 2.33 goals (1.67 for Sevilla, 0.66 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 41%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid played?
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 3. Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla.
What form are Sevilla and Atletico Madrid in?
Sevilla: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sevilla, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid (Apr 11, 2026).
What was the Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sevilla (62%), while victory for Atletico Madrid was rated at only 14%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.
How is the Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.67 for Sevilla, 0.66 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sevilla predictions
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology