Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)
Alianza Atletico vs Universitario: 1-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Alianza Atletico 1-4 Universitario. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Alianza Atletico (57%), while victory for Universitario was rated at only 22%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.
Match analysis
Alianza Atletico and Universitario met on Sunday, October 18, 2026, a Peruvian Liga 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana. Before kick-off, our model gave Alianza Atletico a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Universitario 22%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (9.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (8.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Atletico have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Universitario have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Alianza Atletico score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Universitario score 2.00 and concede 2.20. In the table, Alianza Atletico sit 7th with 22 points from 11 games, Universitario 8th with 21 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Alianza Atletico have averaged 1.73 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.36 for Universitario.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Alianza Atletico, 0 for Universitario and 0 draws. The most recent ended Universitario 1-2 Alianza Atletico (Apr 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "Alianza Atletico or draw" stands at 78%, "Universitario or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Alianza Atletico are favourites for this Alianza Atletico v Universitario, with a 57% win probability from our model. On recent form, Alianza Atletico have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Universitario have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Alianza Atletico – Universitario. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico 1-1 Universitario | 9.8% |
| Alianza Atletico 2-1 Universitario | 9.8% |
| Alianza Atletico 1-0 Universitario | 8.4% |
| Alianza Atletico 2-0 Universitario | 8.4% |
| Alianza Atletico 3-1 Universitario | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.00 expected goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.17 for Universitario, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 61% and "both teams to score" at 60%. Goals look likely in this one. Alianza Atletico keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Universitario in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico expected goals | 2.00 |
| Universitario expected goals | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Alianza Atletico clean sheet | 31% |
| Universitario clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Alianza Atletico
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sport Boys · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Sport Boys · Copa De La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sport Boys · Copa De La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-3 | L |
Universitario
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | FBC Melgar · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alianza Lima · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 7 | 22 | 11 |
| Universitario | 8 | 21 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Universitario 1-2 Alianza Atletico | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Alianza Atletico
No absences reported.
Universitario
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Alianza Atletico
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Penilla3/5
- D. Prieto3/5
- J. Ingratti3/5
- A. Gordillo2/5
- A. Munoz2/5
- G. Diaz2/5
- Germán Díaz2/5
- H. Lupu2/5
- H. Lupú2/5
- J. del Castillo2/5
- J. Delgado2/5
Universitario
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Polo4/5
- A. Valera4/5
- C. Fara4/5
- C. Inga4/5
- D. Romero4/5
- J. Concha4/5
- W. Riveros4/5
- G. Lapadula3/5
- J. Murrugarra3/5
- M. Di Benedetto2/5
- P. A. Quispe Cordova2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sport Huancayo 2-1 CuscoOct 16, 2026
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-1 ADTOct 16, 2026
- Juan Pablo II College 2-0 Sport BoysOct 17, 2026
- FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo GarcilasoOct 18, 2026
- Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico GrauOct 18, 2026
- Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes UnidosOct 18, 2026
- FC Cajamarca 0-1 UCV MoqueguaOct 18, 2026
- Cienciano 1-0 UTC CajamarcaOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Alianza Atletico vs Universitario prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Alianza Atletico a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Universitario 22%. Alianza Atletico are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Alianza Atletico vs Universitario?
1-1 (9.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.4%), 2-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs Universitario?
The probability that both Alianza Atletico and Universitario score is 60%. Alianza Atletico have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Universitario 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Alianza Atletico vs Universitario?
The model expects 3.17 goals (2.00 for Alianza Atletico, 1.17 for Universitario). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 39%.
When and where is Alianza Atletico vs Universitario played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana.
What form are Alianza Atletico and Universitario in?
Alianza Atletico: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Universitario: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Alianza Atletico and Universitario?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Alianza Atletico, 0 for Universitario and 0 draws. The most recent ended Universitario 1-2 Alianza Atletico (Apr 27, 2026).
What was the Alianza Atletico vs Universitario result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Alianza Atletico 1-4 Universitario. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Alianza Atletico (57%), while victory for Universitario was rated at only 22%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.
How is the Alianza Atletico vs Universitario prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.00 for Alianza Atletico, 1.17 for Universitario) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Alianza Atletico predictions
- All Universitario predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology