Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos: 4-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes Unidos. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sporting Cristal was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
Match analysis
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos was played on Sunday, October 18, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima. Before kick-off, our model gave Sporting Cristal a 44% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Comerciantes Unidos 29%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.6%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (8.9%).
Sporting Cristal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 12 and conceding 2. Comerciantes Unidos have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Sporting Cristal. On average Sporting Cristal score 2.40 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Comerciantes Unidos score 1.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Sporting Cristal sit 2nd with 22 points from 11 games, Comerciantes Unidos 15th with 10 points from 11. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Sporting Cristal have averaged 0.75 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.07 for Comerciantes Unidos.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sporting Cristal, 1 for Comerciantes Unidos and 0 draws. The most recent ended Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 Sporting Cristal (Apr 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sporting Cristal or draw" stands at 71%, "Comerciantes Unidos or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Our model backs Sporting Cristal to edge Comerciantes Unidos (44% probability). On recent form, Sporting Cristal are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while Comerciantes Unidos have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sporting Cristal – Comerciantes Unidos. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos | 12.6% |
| Sporting Cristal 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos | 11.4% |
| Sporting Cristal 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos | 8.9% |
| Sporting Cristal 0-1 Comerciantes Unidos | 8.9% |
| Sporting Cristal 2-0 Comerciantes Unidos | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.52 goals in total (1.42 for Sporting Cristal, 1.10 for Comerciantes Unidos): over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability and both teams to score 51%. Sporting Cristal keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Comerciantes Unidos in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal expected goals | 1.42 |
| Comerciantes Unidos expected goals | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Sporting Cristal clean sheet | 33% |
| Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sporting Cristal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | ADT · Copa De La Liga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | ADT · Copa De La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UCV Moquegua · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
Comerciantes Unidos
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Universitario · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 28, 2026 | FC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 2 | 22 | 11 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 15 | 10 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 Sporting Cristal | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Sporting Cristal
No absences reported.
Comerciantes Unidos
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sporting Cristal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Cristiano3/5
- M. Castro3/5
- R. Lutiger3/5
- Agustín Álvarez2/5
- D. Enriquez2/5
- Diego Enríquez2/5
- L. Abram2/5
- L. Iberico2/5
- L. Sosa2/5
- Leandro Sosa2/5
- Luis Iberico2/5
Comerciantes Unidos
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Rodriguez3/5
- A. Arias2/5
- A. Cossio2/5
- Alexis Arias2/5
- Alexis Cossio2/5
- F. Alcedo2/5
- F. Rojas2/5
- Fabio Rojas2/5
- J. Parodi2/5
- Jean Carlo Olivares2/5
- Jhon Sánchez2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sport Huancayo 2-1 CuscoOct 16, 2026
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-1 ADTOct 16, 2026
- Juan Pablo II College 2-0 Sport BoysOct 17, 2026
- FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo GarcilasoOct 18, 2026
- Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico GrauOct 18, 2026
- FC Cajamarca 0-1 UCV MoqueguaOct 18, 2026
- Alianza Atletico 1-4 UniversitarioOct 18, 2026
- Cienciano 1-0 UTC CajamarcaOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sporting Cristal a 44% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Comerciantes Unidos 29%. Sporting Cristal are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 4-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos?
1-1 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The probability that both Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos score is 51%. Sporting Cristal have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Comerciantes Unidos 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model expects 2.52 goals (1.42 for Sporting Cristal, 1.10 for Comerciantes Unidos). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima.
What form are Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos in?
Sporting Cristal: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 2 conceded). Comerciantes Unidos: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sporting Cristal, 1 for Comerciantes Unidos and 0 draws. The most recent ended Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 Sporting Cristal (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes Unidos. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sporting Cristal was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
How is the Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.42 for Sporting Cristal, 1.10 for Comerciantes Unidos) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sporting Cristal predictions
- All Comerciantes Unidos predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology