Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Monday, October 19, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cienciano 1-0 UTC Cajamarca. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cienciano was the model's favourite outcome (72%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (15.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): correct.
Match analysis
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca was played on Monday, October 19, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. Before kick-off, our model gave Cienciano a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and UTC Cajamarca 9%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.8%), ahead of 2-0 (15.8%) and 3-0 (10.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cienciano have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. UTC Cajamarca have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 13. Recent momentum is clearly with Cienciano. On average Cienciano score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; UTC Cajamarca score 1.40 and concede 2.60. In the table, Cienciano sit 13th with 11 points from 11 games, UTC Cajamarca 18th with 2 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cienciano, 0 for UTC Cajamarca and 1 draw. The most recent ended UTC Cajamarca 2-2 Cienciano (Apr 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cienciano or draw" stands at 91%, "UTC Cajamarca or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Cienciano are tipped by our AI model in this Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca (72%). On recent form, Cienciano have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while UTC Cajamarca are struggling (5 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cienciano – UTC Cajamarca. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cienciano 1-0 UTC Cajamarca | 15.8% |
| Cienciano 2-0 UTC Cajamarca | 15.8% |
| Cienciano 3-0 UTC Cajamarca | 10.5% |
| Cienciano 1-1 UTC Cajamarca | 8.5% |
| Cienciano 2-1 UTC Cajamarca | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.54 goals in total (2.00 for Cienciano, 0.54 for UTC Cajamarca): over 2.5 goals has a 47% probability and both teams to score 36%. Cienciano keep a clean sheet in 58% of scenarios, UTC Cajamarca in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cienciano expected goals | 2.00 |
| UTC Cajamarca expected goals | 0.54 |
| Both teams to score | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Cienciano clean sheet | 58% |
| UTC Cajamarca clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cienciano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | UCV Moquegua · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 23, 2026 | ADT · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Atletico Torque · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Atletico Torque · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 | W |
UTC Cajamarca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sporting Cristal · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Universitario · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| UTC Cajamarca | 18 | 2 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca 2-2 Cienciano | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Cienciano
No absences reported.
UTC Cajamarca
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cienciano
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Garcés3/4
- C. Souza3/4
- K. Becerra3/4
- M. Martinich3/4
- N. Bandiera3/4
- S. Arias3/4
- A. Robles2/4
- G. Barreto2/4
- Í. Espinoza2/4
- M. Amondarain2/4
- A. Hohberg1/4
UTC Cajamarca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Duarte3/5
- L. Arce3/5
- L. Garro3/5
- M. Lliuya3/5
- A. Figuera2/5
- A. Munoz2/5
- Arquímedes Figuera2/5
- D. Camacho2/5
- David Camacho2/5
- F. Cavagna2/5
- Francesco Cavagna2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sport Huancayo 2-1 CuscoOct 16, 2026
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-1 ADTOct 16, 2026
- Juan Pablo II College 2-0 Sport BoysOct 17, 2026
- FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo GarcilasoOct 18, 2026
- Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico GrauOct 18, 2026
- Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes UnidosOct 18, 2026
- FC Cajamarca 0-1 UCV MoqueguaOct 18, 2026
- Alianza Atletico 1-4 UniversitarioOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cienciano a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and UTC Cajamarca 9%. Cienciano are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
1-0 (15.8%), followed by 2-0 (15.8%), 3-0 (10.5%), 1-1 (8.5%) and 2-1 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
The probability that both Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca score is 36%. Cienciano have a 58% chance of keeping a clean sheet, UTC Cajamarca 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model expects 2.54 goals (2.00 for Cienciano, 0.54 for UTC Cajamarca). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca played?
Monday, October 19, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco.
What form are Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca in?
Cienciano: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). UTC Cajamarca: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cienciano, 0 for UTC Cajamarca and 1 draw. The most recent ended UTC Cajamarca 2-2 Cienciano (Apr 26, 2026).
What was the Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cienciano 1-0 UTC Cajamarca. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cienciano was the model's favourite outcome (72%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (15.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): correct.
How is the Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.00 for Cienciano, 0.54 for UTC Cajamarca) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cienciano predictions
- All UTC Cajamarca predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology