Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 02:30 (UK time)
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico Grau. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Alianza Lima was the model's favourite outcome (35%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.
Match analysis
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau was played on Sunday, October 18, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima. Before kick-off, our model gave Alianza Lima a 35% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Atletico Grau 34%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (14.1%), ahead of 1-0 (13.9%) and 0-1 (13.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Lima have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Grau have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Alianza Lima score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Atletico Grau score 1.40 and concede 1.60. In the table, Alianza Lima sit 8th with 19 points from 11 games, Atletico Grau 11th with 17 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Alianza Lima, 0 for Atletico Grau and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Grau 0-1 Alianza Lima (Apr 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Alianza Lima or draw" stands at 66%, "Atletico Grau or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 69%.
In short : Alianza Lima host Atletico Grau in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (31%). In the table, Alianza Lima (8th, 19 pts) host Atletico Grau (11th, 17 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Alianza Lima – Atletico Grau. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alianza Lima 0-0 Atletico Grau | 14.1% |
| Alianza Lima 1-0 Atletico Grau | 13.9% |
| Alianza Lima 0-1 Atletico Grau | 13.7% |
| Alianza Lima 1-1 Atletico Grau | 13.5% |
| Alianza Lima 2-0 Atletico Grau | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.96 goals in total (0.99 for Alianza Lima, 0.97 for Atletico Grau): over 2.5 goals has a 31% probability and both teams to score 39%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Alianza Lima keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Atletico Grau in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Alianza Lima expected goals | 0.99 |
| Atletico Grau expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 38% |
| Atletico Grau clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Alianza Lima
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Cusco · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Palestino · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | ADT · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Universitario · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
Atletico Grau
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting Cristal · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | FBC Melgar · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 8 | 19 | 11 |
| Atletico Grau | 11 | 17 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Atletico Grau 0-1 Alianza Lima | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Alianza Lima
No absences reported.
Atletico Grau
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Alianza Lima
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Duarte4/5
- E. Castillo3/5
- F. Gaibor3/5
- E. Pavez2/5
- F. Girotti2/5
- G. Chavez2/5
- G. Gentile2/5
- J. Velez2/5
- K. Quevedo2/5
- L. Advincula2/5
- M. Antoni2/5
Atletico Grau
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Guarderas4/5
- F. Oncoy3/5
- I. Tapia3/5
- M. Da Luz3/5
- P. Alvarez3/5
- P. de la Cruz3/5
- R. Tapia3/5
- C. Vasquez2/5
- D. Barreto2/5
- G. E. Alfaro Martinez2/5
- P. Lavandeira Hernandez2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sport Huancayo 2-1 CuscoOct 16, 2026
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-1 ADTOct 16, 2026
- Juan Pablo II College 2-0 Sport BoysOct 17, 2026
- FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo GarcilasoOct 18, 2026
- Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes UnidosOct 18, 2026
- FC Cajamarca 0-1 UCV MoqueguaOct 18, 2026
- Alianza Atletico 1-4 UniversitarioOct 18, 2026
- Cienciano 1-0 UTC CajamarcaOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Alianza Lima a 35% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Atletico Grau 34%. Alianza Lima are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?
0-0 (14.1%), followed by 1-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.7%), 1-1 (13.5%) and 2-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?
The probability that both Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau score is 39%. Alianza Lima have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Grau 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?
The model expects 1.96 goals (0.99 for Alianza Lima, 0.97 for Atletico Grau). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 58%, over 2.5 goals 31%, over 3.5 goals 14%.
When and where is Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:30 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima.
What form are Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau in?
Alianza Lima: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Atletico Grau: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Alianza Lima, 0 for Atletico Grau and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Grau 0-1 Alianza Lima (Apr 26, 2026).
What was the Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico Grau. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Alianza Lima was the model's favourite outcome (35%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.
How is the Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.99 for Alianza Lima, 0.97 for Atletico Grau) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Alianza Lima predictions
- All Atletico Grau predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology