Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso: 4-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo Garcilaso. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for FBC Melgar was the model's favourite outcome (42%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.
Match analysis
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso was played on Sunday, October 18, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Estadio Monumental de la UNSA, Arequipa. Before kick-off, our model gave FBC Melgar a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Garcilaso 35%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.0%), ahead of 2-1 (8.7%) and 1-2 (7.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, FBC Melgar have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Garcilaso have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average FBC Melgar score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, FBC Melgar sit 7th with 19 points from 11 games, Deportivo Garcilaso 3rd with 22 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, FBC Melgar have averaged 1.70 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.61 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FBC Melgar, 1 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 FBC Melgar (Apr 28, 2026). In double chance terms, "FBC Melgar or draw" stands at 65%, "Deportivo Garcilaso or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 23%). On recent form, FBC Melgar have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Deportivo Garcilaso have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FBC Melgar – Deportivo Garcilaso. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FBC Melgar 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | 10.0% |
| FBC Melgar 2-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | 8.7% |
| FBC Melgar 1-2 Deportivo Garcilaso | 7.8% |
| FBC Melgar 2-2 Deportivo Garcilaso | 6.8% |
| FBC Melgar 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.31 goals in total (1.75 for FBC Melgar, 1.56 for Deportivo Garcilaso): over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability and both teams to score 65%. Everything points to an open game. FBC Melgar keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, Deportivo Garcilaso in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FBC Melgar expected goals | 1.75 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| FBC Melgar clean sheet | 21% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FBC Melgar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Universitario · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sport Boys · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cusco · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | ADT · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
Deportivo Garcilaso
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Universitario · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sport Boys · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-2 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Alianza Lima · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 7 | 19 | 11 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 3 | 22 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 FBC Melgar | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
FBC Melgar
No absences reported.
Deportivo Garcilaso
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
FBC Melgar
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Cuesta4/5
- C. Bordacahar4/5
- J. Cabezudo4/5
- J. Escobar4/5
- K. Minda4/5
- M. Lazo4/5
- N. Cabanillas4/5
- J. Vidales3/5
- L. Gonzalez3/5
- N. Quagliata3/5
- W. Tandazo3/5
Deportivo Garcilaso
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Salazar5/5
- E. Canales5/5
- F. Arancibia5/5
- F. Castelli5/5
- P. Zubczuk5/5
- X. Moreno5/5
- A. Gomez4/5
- A. Gonzalez4/5
- B. Da Silva4/5
- C. I. Ramos Rodriguez4/5
- K. Sandoval4/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sport Huancayo 2-1 CuscoOct 16, 2026
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-1 ADTOct 16, 2026
- Juan Pablo II College 2-0 Sport BoysOct 17, 2026
- Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico GrauOct 18, 2026
- Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes UnidosOct 18, 2026
- FC Cajamarca 0-1 UCV MoqueguaOct 18, 2026
- Alianza Atletico 1-4 UniversitarioOct 18, 2026
- Cienciano 1-0 UTC CajamarcaOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave FBC Melgar a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Garcilaso 35%. FBC Melgar are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 4-2.
What is the most likely correct score for FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
1-1 (10.0%), followed by 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (6.8%) and 1-0 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The probability that both FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso score is 65%. FBC Melgar have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportivo Garcilaso 17%.
How many goals should we expect in FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model expects 3.31 goals (1.75 for FBC Melgar, 1.56 for Deportivo Garcilaso). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Monumental de la UNSA, Arequipa.
What form are FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso in?
FBC Melgar: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Deportivo Garcilaso: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FBC Melgar, 1 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 FBC Melgar (Apr 28, 2026).
What was the FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo Garcilaso. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for FBC Melgar was the model's favourite outcome (42%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.
How is the FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.75 for FBC Melgar, 1.56 for Deportivo Garcilaso) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FBC Melgar predictions
- All Deportivo Garcilaso predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology