Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ecuadorian Liga Pro: Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja. The edge goes to Libertad (54%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Guayaquil City FC win (22%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Libertad have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Guayaquil City FC have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Libertad score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Guayaquil City FC score 1.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Libertad sit 7th with 44 points from 31 games, Guayaquil City FC 9th with 40 points from 31. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Libertad, 1 for Guayaquil City FC and 1 draw. The most recent ended Guayaquil City FC 2-2 Libertad (Aug 15, 2026). In double chance terms, "Libertad or draw" stands at 78%, "Guayaquil City FC or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Libertad are tipped by our AI model in this Libertad v Guayaquil City FC (54%). In the table, Libertad (7th, 44 pts) host Guayaquil City FC (9th, 40 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Libertad – Guayaquil City FC. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Libertad 1-0 Guayaquil City FC | 11.7% |
| Libertad 1-1 Guayaquil City FC | 11.4% |
| Libertad 2-0 Guayaquil City FC | 9.9% |
| Libertad 2-1 Guayaquil City FC | 9.7% |
| Libertad 0-0 Guayaquil City FC | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.70 for Libertad, 0.98 for Guayaquil City FC): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Libertad keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Guayaquil City FC in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Libertad expected goals | 1.70 |
| Guayaquil City FC expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Libertad clean sheet | 38% |
| Guayaquil City FC clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Libertad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Aucas · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
Guayaquil City FC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Orense SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-4 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 7 | 44 | 31 |
| Guayaquil City FC | 9 | 40 | 31 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC 2-2 Libertad | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Libertad 0-1 Guayaquil City FC | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Libertad
No absences reported.
Guayaquil City FC
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Libertad
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Chere5/5
- C. Valencia5/5
- D. Cabezas5/5
- E. Patta5/5
- O. Quinonez5/5
- V. Branda5/5
- X. E. Pineda Arana5/5
- B. Caicedo4/5
- D. Coronel4/5
- J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza4/5
- R. Morinigo3/5
Guayaquil City FC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Arroyo5/5
- E. Mero5/5
- J. J. Ayovi Caicedo5/5
- J. Quinonez5/5
- P. Gonzalez5/5
- S. Laurino5/5
- Y. Rodriguez5/5
- A. Naula4/5
- R. Arias4/5
- D. Dorregaray3/5
- G. Napa3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Barcelona SC – Universidad CatolicaOct 18, 2026
- Delfin SC – Manta FCOct 18, 2026
- Mushuc Runa SC – Orense SCOct 18, 2026
- Aucas – LDU de QuitoOct 18, 2026
- Leones del Norte – EmelecOct 18, 2026
- Macara – Independiente del ValleOct 18, 2026
- Deportivo Cuenca – Tecnico UniversitarioOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC prediction?
Our AI gives Libertad a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Guayaquil City FC 22%. Libertad are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
The probability that both Libertad and Guayaquil City FC score is 51%. Libertad have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Guayaquil City FC 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.70 for Libertad, 0.98 for Guayaquil City FC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja.
What form are Libertad and Guayaquil City FC in?
Libertad: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Guayaquil City FC: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Libertad and Guayaquil City FC?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Libertad, 1 for Guayaquil City FC and 1 draw. The most recent ended Guayaquil City FC 2-2 Libertad (Aug 15, 2026).
How is the Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.70 for Libertad, 0.98 for Guayaquil City FC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Libertad predictions
- All Guayaquil City FC predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology