Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
Macara vs Independiente del Valle prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Macara take on Independiente del Valle on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Estadio Bellavista, Ambato. It is a tight call: 34% for Macara, 28% for the draw and 38% for Independiente del Valle. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.3%), followed by 0-1 (12.1%) and 1-0 (11.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Macara have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Independiente del Valle have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Macara score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Independiente del Valle score 1.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, Macara sit 2nd with 54 points from 31 games, Independiente del Valle 1st with 74 points from 30. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Macara, 2 for Independiente del Valle and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independiente del Valle 3-1 Macara (Sep 6, 2026). In double chance terms, "Macara or draw" stands at 62%, "Independiente del Valle or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Macara and Independiente del Valle: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Macara have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Independiente del Valle have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Macara – Independiente del Valle. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Macara 1-1 Independiente del Valle | 13.3% |
| Macara 0-1 Independiente del Valle | 12.1% |
| Macara 1-0 Independiente del Valle | 11.1% |
| Macara 0-0 Independiente del Valle | 10.1% |
| Macara 1-2 Independiente del Valle | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.10 expected goals for Macara and 1.19 for Independiente del Valle, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 40% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Few goals are expected here. Macara keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Independiente del Valle in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Macara expected goals | 1.10 |
| Independiente del Valle expected goals | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Macara clean sheet | 30% |
| Independiente del Valle clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Macara
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gualaceo SC · Copa Ecuador | 1-1 | D |
Independiente del Valle
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Flamengo · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macara | 2 | 54 | 31 |
| Independiente del Valle | 1 | 74 | 30 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Independiente del Valle 3-1 Macara | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| May 16, 2026 | Macara 0-3 Independiente del Valle | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Macara
No absences reported.
Independiente del Valle
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Macara
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Estacio4/4
- R. Rodriguez4/4
- A. I. Campana3/4
- D. Bolanos3/4
- F. Posse3/4
- J. Cazares3/4
- M. Ayala3/4
- M. Viera3/4
- S. Etchebarne3/4
- J. Klinger2/4
- J. Marrufo2/4
Independiente del Valle
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Quintana5/5
- G. Cortez3/5
- J. Espinoza3/5
- J. Viacava3/5
- M. Perello3/5
- R. Briones3/5
- R. Schunke3/5
- Y. Ochoa3/5
- A. Velasco2/5
- D. Reasco2/5
- E. Quintero2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Leones del Norte – EmelecOct 18, 2026
- Deportivo Cuenca – Tecnico UniversitarioOct 18, 2026
- Libertad – Guayaquil City FCOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Macara vs Independiente del Valle prediction?
Our AI gives Macara a 34% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Independiente del Valle 38%. Independiente del Valle are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
1-1 (13.3%), followed by 0-1 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.1%) and 1-2 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
The probability that both Macara and Independiente del Valle score is 46%. Macara have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Independiente del Valle 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 2.29 goals (1.10 for Macara, 1.19 for Independiente del Valle). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Macara vs Independiente del Valle played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Bellavista, Ambato.
What form are Macara and Independiente del Valle in?
Macara: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Independiente del Valle: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Macara and Independiente del Valle?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Macara, 2 for Independiente del Valle and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independiente del Valle 3-1 Macara (Sep 6, 2026).
How is the Macara vs Independiente del Valle prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.10 for Macara, 1.19 for Independiente del Valle) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Macara predictions
- All Independiente del Valle predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology