Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Libertad vs Leones del Norte prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ecuadorian Liga Pro: Libertad vs Leones del Norte kicks off on Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja. Libertad start as favourites with a 56% chance of victory; Leones del Norte are given 21% and the draw 23%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%) and 2-0 (10.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Libertad have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Leones del Norte have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Libertad score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Leones del Norte score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Libertad sit 7th with 44 points from 31 games, Leones del Norte 8th with 40 points from 31. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Libertad, 1 for Leones del Norte and 1 draw. The most recent ended Libertad 1-3 Leones del Norte (Jul 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Libertad or draw" stands at 79%, "Leones del Norte or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Libertad are tipped by our AI model in this Libertad v Leones del Norte (56%). In the table, Libertad (7th, 44 pts) host Leones del Norte (8th, 40 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Libertad – Leones del Norte. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Libertad 1-0 Leones del Norte | 11.7% |
| Libertad 1-1 Leones del Norte | 11.2% |
| Libertad 2-0 Leones del Norte | 10.2% |
| Libertad 2-1 Leones del Norte | 9.8% |
| Libertad 0-0 Leones del Norte | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.74 expected goals for Libertad and 0.96 for Leones del Norte, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Libertad keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Leones del Norte in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Libertad expected goals | 1.74 |
| Leones del Norte expected goals | 0.96 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Libertad clean sheet | 38% |
| Leones del Norte clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Libertad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Aucas · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
Leones del Norte
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Orense SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 7 | 44 | 31 |
| Leones del Norte | 8 | 40 | 31 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Libertad 1-3 Leones del Norte | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Leones del Norte 1-1 Libertad | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Libertad
No absences reported.
Leones del Norte
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Libertad
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Chere5/5
- C. Valencia5/5
- D. Cabezas5/5
- E. Patta5/5
- O. Quinonez5/5
- V. Branda5/5
- X. E. Pineda Arana5/5
- B. Caicedo4/5
- D. Coronel4/5
- J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza4/5
- R. Morinigo3/5
Leones del Norte
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Solano5/5
- J. Anangono5/5
- L. Nazareno5/5
- N. Monserrat5/5
- P. Madero5/5
- T. Coppo5/5
- E. Griffa4/5
- J. Moran4/5
- M. Luque4/5
- M. Caicedo3/5
- B. Kreiman2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Delfin SC – Mushuc Runa SCOct 9, 2026
- Independiente del Valle – AucasOct 10, 2026
- Manta FC – Tecnico UniversitarioOct 10, 2026
- Guayaquil City FC – EmelecOct 10, 2026
- Universidad Catolica – MacaraOct 11, 2026
- Orense SC – Deportivo CuencaOct 11, 2026
- LDU de Quito – Barcelona SCOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Libertad vs Leones del Norte prediction?
Our AI gives Libertad a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones del Norte 21%. Libertad are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
The probability that both Libertad and Leones del Norte score is 51%. Libertad have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Leones del Norte 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
The model expects 2.70 goals (1.74 for Libertad, 0.96 for Leones del Norte). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Libertad vs Leones del Norte played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja.
What form are Libertad and Leones del Norte in?
Libertad: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Leones del Norte: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Libertad and Leones del Norte?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Libertad, 1 for Leones del Norte and 1 draw. The most recent ended Libertad 1-3 Leones del Norte (Jul 4, 2026).
How is the Libertad vs Leones del Norte prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.74 for Libertad, 0.96 for Leones del Norte) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Libertad predictions
- All Leones del Norte predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology