Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
Universidad Catolica vs Macara prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ecuadorian Liga Pro: the Universidad Catolica vs Macara match is scheduled on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time). The edge goes to Universidad Catolica (51%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Macara win (24%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Universidad Catolica have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Macara have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Universidad Catolica score 1.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Macara score 1.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Universidad Catolica sit 3rd with 51 points from 31 games, Macara 2nd with 54 points from 31. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Universidad Catolica, 0 for Macara and 1 draw. The most recent ended Macara 1-1 Universidad Catolica (Aug 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Universidad Catolica or draw" stands at 76%, "Macara or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Universidad Catolica to edge Macara (51% probability). On recent form, Universidad Catolica have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Macara have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Universidad Catolica – Macara. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica 1-1 Macara | 11.8% |
| Universidad Catolica 1-0 Macara | 11.5% |
| Universidad Catolica 2-1 Macara | 9.5% |
| Universidad Catolica 2-0 Macara | 9.2% |
| Universidad Catolica 0-1 Macara | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.61 for Universidad Catolica, 1.03 for Macara): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 51%. Universidad Catolica keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Macara in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica expected goals | 1.61 |
| Macara expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Universidad Catolica clean sheet | 36% |
| Macara clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Universidad Catolica
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Orense SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Astillero FC (Ecu) · Copa Ecuador | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Delfin SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Aucas · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
Macara
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gualaceo SC · Copa Ecuador | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica | 3 | 51 | 31 |
| Macara | 2 | 54 | 31 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Macara 1-1 Universidad Catolica | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Universidad Catolica 4-0 Macara | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Universidad Catolica
No absences reported.
Macara
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Universidad Catolica
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Clavijo5/5
- L. Canga5/5
- M. Alonso5/5
- C. Medina4/5
- J. Fajardo4/5
- J. Lara4/5
- M. Diaz4/5
- A. Londono3/5
- D. Nazareno3/5
- F. Martinez3/5
- E. Mejia2/5
Macara
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Estacio4/4
- R. Rodriguez4/4
- A. I. Campana3/4
- D. Bolanos3/4
- F. Posse3/4
- J. Cazares3/4
- M. Ayala3/4
- M. Viera3/4
- S. Etchebarne3/4
- J. Klinger2/4
- J. Marrufo2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Libertad – Leones del NorteOct 9, 2026
- Delfin SC – Mushuc Runa SCOct 9, 2026
- Independiente del Valle – AucasOct 10, 2026
- Manta FC – Tecnico UniversitarioOct 10, 2026
- Guayaquil City FC – EmelecOct 10, 2026
- Orense SC – Deportivo CuencaOct 11, 2026
- LDU de Quito – Barcelona SCOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Universidad Catolica vs Macara prediction?
Our AI gives Universidad Catolica a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Macara 24%. Universidad Catolica are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Universidad Catolica vs Macara?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica vs Macara?
The probability that both Universidad Catolica and Macara score is 51%. Universidad Catolica have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Macara 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Universidad Catolica vs Macara?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.61 for Universidad Catolica, 1.03 for Macara). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Universidad Catolica vs Macara played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro.
What form are Universidad Catolica and Macara in?
Universidad Catolica: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). Macara: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad Catolica and Macara?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Universidad Catolica, 0 for Macara and 1 draw. The most recent ended Macara 1-1 Universidad Catolica (Aug 18, 2026).
How is the Universidad Catolica vs Macara prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Universidad Catolica, 1.03 for Macara) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Universidad Catolica predictions
- All Macara predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology