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Premier LeaguePremier League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)

Arsenal vs Chelsea: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

ArsenalArsenal2 – 1ChelseaChelsea

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Chelsea (59%), while victory for Arsenal was rated at only 23%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (73%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (78%): correct.

Match analysis

Arsenal and Chelsea met on Sunday, September 6, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Arsenal a 23% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Chelsea 59%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.2%), followed by 1-3 (7.0%) and 2-2 (6.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 15 and conceding 9. Chelsea therefore arrive in far better shape than Arsenal. On average Arsenal score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Chelsea score 3.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Arsenal sit 3rd with 6 points from 2 games, Chelsea 4th with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Arsenal have averaged 1.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.79 for Chelsea.

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Chelsea and 1 draw. The most recent ended Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea (Mar 1, 2026). Arsenal out or doubtful: W. Saliba, Bruno Guimaraes, C. Mosquera and J. Timber. Chelsea: J. Henderson, M. Palestra and M. Caicedo. In double chance terms, "Arsenal or draw" stands at 41%, "Chelsea or draw" at 77% and "no draw" at 82%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

23%
Arsenal (Win)
18%
Draw
59%
Chelsea (Win)

Double chance

41%
Arsenal or draw
77%
Chelsea or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Arsenal – Chelsea. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Arsenal 1-2 Chelsea8.2%
Arsenal 1-3 Chelsea7.0%
Arsenal 2-2 Chelsea6.5%
Arsenal 1-1 Chelsea6.4%
Arsenal 2-3 Chelsea5.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.59 expected goals for Arsenal and 2.56 for Chelsea, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 78% and "both teams to score" at 73%. Goals look likely in this one. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 8% of scenarios, Chelsea in 20%.

Probability
Arsenal expected goals1.59
Chelsea expected goals2.56
Both teams to score73%
Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals78%
Over 3.5 goals60%
Arsenal clean sheet8%
Chelsea clean sheet20%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Arsenal

DateOpponentScore
Aug 31, 2026Aston Villa · Premier League1-0W
Aug 21, 2026Coventry · Premier League3-0W
Aug 16, 2026Manchester City · FA Community Shield3-0W
Aug 12, 2026Como · Club Friendlies1-1D
Aug 5, 2026Real Betis · Club Friendlies1-3L

Chelsea

DateOpponentScore
Aug 30, 2026Brighton · Premier League4-3W
Aug 27, 2026Luton · EFL Cup2-0W
Aug 24, 2026Fulham · Premier League3-2W
Aug 15, 2026Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies3-1W
Aug 9, 2026Johor Darul Takzim FC · Club Friendlies3-3D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Arsenal362
Chelsea462

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 1, 2026Arsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
Feb 3, 2026Arsenal 1-0 ChelseaEFL Cup
Jan 14, 2026Chelsea 2-3 ArsenalEFL Cup
Nov 30, 2025Chelsea 1-1 ArsenalPremier League

Out and doubtful

Arsenal

  • W. Saliba (out)
  • Bruno Guimaraes (out)
  • C. Mosquera (out)
  • J. Timber (out)

Chelsea

  • J. Henderson (out)
  • M. Palestra (out)
  • M. Caicedo (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Arsenal a 23% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Chelsea 59%. Chelsea are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

1-2 (8.2%), followed by 1-3 (7.0%), 2-2 (6.5%), 1-1 (6.4%) and 2-3 (5.6%).

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Chelsea?

The probability that both Arsenal and Chelsea score is 73%. Arsenal have a 8% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Chelsea 20%.

How many goals should we expect in Arsenal vs Chelsea?

The model expects 4.15 goals (1.59 for Arsenal, 2.56 for Chelsea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 78%, over 3.5 goals 60%.

When and where is Arsenal vs Chelsea played?

Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 3. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London.

What form are Arsenal and Chelsea in?

Arsenal: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Chelsea: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Chelsea?

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Chelsea and 1 draw. The most recent ended Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea (Mar 1, 2026).

What was the Arsenal vs Chelsea result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Chelsea (59%), while victory for Arsenal was rated at only 23%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (73%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (78%): correct.

How is the Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.59 for Arsenal, 2.56 for Chelsea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained