Premier League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Everton vs Manchester United: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Everton 2-2 Manchester United. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Manchester United (47%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 2-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (7.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (78%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.
Match analysis
Everton and Manchester United met on Sunday, September 6, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. Before kick-off, our model gave Everton a 27% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Manchester United 47%. On the correct score, 2-2 comes out on top (7.2%), followed by 1-2 (7.1%) and 2-1 (6.2%).
Everton are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 3. Manchester United have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 10. Everton therefore arrive in far better shape than Manchester United. On average Everton score 2.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Manchester United score 1.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Everton sit 10th with 4 points from 2 games, Manchester United 12th with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Everton have averaged 1.48 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.19 for Manchester United.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Everton, 1 for Manchester United and 0 draws. The most recent ended Everton 0-1 Manchester United (Feb 23, 2026). Everton out or doubtful: C. Norgaard. Manchester United: C. Baleba, A. Diallo, M. Ugarte, M. de Ligt and T. Heaton. In double chance terms, "Everton or draw" stands at 54%, "Manchester United or draw" at 73% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Everton – Manchester United. 2-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Everton 2-2 Manchester United | 7.2% |
| Everton 1-2 Manchester United | 7.1% |
| Everton 2-1 Manchester United | 6.2% |
| Everton 1-1 Manchester United | 6.1% |
| Everton 2-3 Manchester United | 5.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.03 expected goals for Everton and 2.32 for Manchester United, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 81% and "both teams to score" at 78%. Goals look likely in this one. Everton keep a clean sheet in 10% of scenarios, Manchester United in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Everton expected goals | 2.03 |
| Manchester United expected goals | 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% |
| Everton clean sheet | 10% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Everton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Preston · EFL Cup | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lille · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Newcastle · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan · Club Friendlies | 2-4 | L |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Manchester United | 12 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | Everton 0-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Manchester United 0-1 Everton | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Everton
- C. Norgaard (out)
Manchester United
- C. Baleba (out)
- A. Diallo (out)
- M. Ugarte (out)
- M. de Ligt (out)
- T. Heaton (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Ipswich 0-2 LiverpoolSep 4, 2026
- Newcastle 2-2 BournemouthSep 5, 2026
- Brighton 1-1 LeedsSep 5, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-0 TottenhamSep 5, 2026
- Brentford 1-1 SunderlandSep 5, 2026
- Fulham 2-3 Crystal PalaceSep 5, 2026
- Manchester City 1-0 CoventrySep 5, 2026
- Hull City 0-0 Aston VillaSep 5, 2026
- Arsenal 2-1 ChelseaSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Everton vs Manchester United prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Everton a 27% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Manchester United 47%. Manchester United are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Everton vs Manchester United?
2-2 (7.2%), followed by 1-2 (7.1%), 2-1 (6.2%), 1-1 (6.1%) and 2-3 (5.5%).
Will both teams score in Everton vs Manchester United?
The probability that both Everton and Manchester United score is 78%. Everton have a 10% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester United 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Everton vs Manchester United?
The model expects 4.35 goals (2.03 for Everton, 2.32 for Manchester United). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 81%, over 3.5 goals 63%.
When and where is Everton vs Manchester United played?
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 3. Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool.
What form are Everton and Manchester United in?
Everton: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded). Manchester United: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Manchester United?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Everton, 1 for Manchester United and 0 draws. The most recent ended Everton 0-1 Manchester United (Feb 23, 2026).
What was the Everton vs Manchester United result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Everton 2-2 Manchester United. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Manchester United (47%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 2-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (7.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (78%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.
How is the Everton vs Manchester United prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.03 for Everton, 2.32 for Manchester United) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Everton predictions
- All Manchester United predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology