Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Brentford vs Sunderland: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Brentford 1-1 Sunderland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Brentford (80%), while a draw was rated at only 12%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): missed.
Match analysis
Brentford and Sunderland met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Brentford a 80% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Sunderland 8%. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (8.1%), followed by 3-0 (7.6%) and 2-1 (7.3%).
Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 21 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Sunderland have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Brentford score 4.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Sunderland score 2.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Brentford sit 6th with 4 points from 2 games, Sunderland 12th with 3 points from 2. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Brentford have averaged 2.54 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.39 for Sunderland.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Brentford, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Brentford 3-0 Sunderland (Jan 7, 2026). Brentford out or doubtful: A. Milambo, S. van den Berg, J. Dasilva and M. Jensen. Sunderland: H. Diarra. In double chance terms, "Brentford or draw" stands at 92%, "Sunderland or draw" at 20% and "no draw" at 88%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Brentford – Sunderland. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brentford 3-1 Sunderland | 8.1% |
| Brentford 3-0 Sunderland | 7.6% |
| Brentford 2-1 Sunderland | 7.3% |
| Brentford 2-0 Sunderland | 6.9% |
| Brentford 4-1 Sunderland | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.31 expected goals for Brentford and 1.07 for Sunderland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 81% and "both teams to score" at 63%. Goals look likely in this one. Brentford keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Sunderland in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Brentford expected goals | 3.31 |
| Sunderland expected goals | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 64% |
| Brentford clean sheet | 34% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Brentford
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Birmingham · EFL Cup | 6-1 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Club Friendlies | 7-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rennes · Club Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
Sunderland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rennes · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lens · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 18, 2026 | York · Club Friendlies | 5-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Sunderland | 12 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Brentford 3-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Sunderland 2-1 Brentford | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Brentford
- A. Milambo (out)
- S. van den Berg (out)
- J. Dasilva (out)
- M. Jensen (out)
Sunderland
- H. Diarra (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Ipswich 0-2 LiverpoolSep 4, 2026
- Newcastle 2-2 BournemouthSep 5, 2026
- Brighton 1-1 LeedsSep 5, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-0 TottenhamSep 5, 2026
- Fulham 2-3 Crystal PalaceSep 5, 2026
- Manchester City 1-0 CoventrySep 5, 2026
- Hull City 0-0 Aston VillaSep 5, 2026
- Everton 2-2 Manchester UnitedSep 6, 2026
- Arsenal 2-1 ChelseaSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Brentford vs Sunderland prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Brentford a 80% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Sunderland 8%. Brentford are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Brentford vs Sunderland?
3-1 (8.1%), followed by 3-0 (7.6%), 2-1 (7.3%), 2-0 (6.9%) and 4-1 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Sunderland?
The probability that both Brentford and Sunderland score is 63%. Brentford have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sunderland 4%.
How many goals should we expect in Brentford vs Sunderland?
The model expects 4.38 goals (3.31 for Brentford, 1.07 for Sunderland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 81%, over 3.5 goals 64%.
When and where is Brentford vs Sunderland played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 3. Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London.
What form are Brentford and Sunderland in?
Brentford: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (21 scored, 4 conceded). Sunderland: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Sunderland?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Brentford, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Brentford 3-0 Sunderland (Jan 7, 2026).
What was the Brentford vs Sunderland result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Brentford 1-1 Sunderland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Brentford (80%), while a draw was rated at only 12%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): missed.
How is the Brentford vs Sunderland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.31 for Brentford, 1.07 for Sunderland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Brentford predictions
- All Sunderland predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology